Every year, at their respective preseason media days, each conference conducts a poll of media in attendance to rank the teams in the league. The polls rarely contain anything controversial; they almost always regurgitate the league standings from the previous year. Back in the old days— you know, like five years ago— that seemed like a logical way to go. But these are different times. Today, we have a transfer portal to bolster rosters and NIL collectives to lure players to schools. The media votes on who they think is the best in the conference despite teams getting completely overhauled almost every year. One wonders if preseason media polls should even exist anymore.

Few teams exemplify this phenomenon as well as USF. The Bulls have endured an inexplicably bad four-year run, going 8-37 over that span, including a 1-11 campaign in 2022. Coming into this season, their last win over an FBS opponent was in October 2021. The times, though, they are a-changin'. USF secured their first win by week two. They were within one score of Alabama-- Alabama-- with less than a minute to play the following week. Last week, they earned their first conference win with a 42-29 victory over Rice. Now, USF is 2-2 and in a position to make a serious run in the AAC.

The national media made a big deal out of the Alabama game in the context of "what's wrong with Alabama?" That's fair, but I think there is much to be said about what's changed for USF, too. The combination of young players on the rise, incoming transfers, and a new head coach has made the Bulls a completely different team.

Just how different? Consider this: the country's top rushing quarterback isn't at a service academy, and he isn't at Ole Miss, Michigan, or UCLA. No, the top rushing quarterback is USF's Byrum Brown, a 6-3 redshirt freshman averaging nearly 88 yards per game. And the country's leader in tackles for a loss? It isn't some physical specimen from an SEC linebacking corps. It's USF's Daquan Evans, a senior defensive back. He had more TFLs against Alabama (4) than he had in his entire career before this season (3.5). In only his fourth game in a USF uniform, wide receiver Naiem Simmons, a transfer from Wagner, set a school record with 272 receiving yards. That was also the second-most yards in a game in conference history.

Leading this resurgence is new head coach Alex Golesh, who came to Tampa from Tennessee, where he was the Volunteers' offensive coordinator. He followed Josh Heupel to Tennessee from UCF, where he was also co-offensive coordinator. Golesh's offense with the Vols was revolutionary. In 2019, Tennessee was 100th in the country in total offense. In 2020, they were 102nd. Last year, with Golesh calling the plays, the Vols had the top offense in the nation, averaging a whopping 525.5 yards per game. He's brought that same offense to USF, and so far, it's been effective. The Bulls' offense is averaging 434.3 ypg this season, up from 389.7 ypg a year ago.

The first thing that stands out when looking at the USF offense is the pace of play. Tempo is a crucial component of Golesh's offense. The Bulls are averaging 84 plays per game, the fourth-most in the country. Only Texas Tech and Tennessee move faster than USF's 21.4 seconds per play. That fast pace puts pressure on defenses, limiting chances to make substitutions and making it difficult to adjust.

While the tempo grabs most people's attention, spreading the field is another critical element to the USF offense. Golesh uses formations to force defenses to cover the entire field, with wide receivers lining up outside the numbers.

Both of these elements have the same goal: to simplify defenses. If a defense has to match the offense's pace, it's hard for them to disguise what they're doing. A defense like Navy's likes to move players around before the snap to simulate pressure before backing off. That is hard to do when you have to align yourself quickly. Lining up receivers from sideline to sideline limits the number of players you can put in the box against the run. This is another problem for Navy. One of the reasons why Navy is so effective against the run is that they use unusual run fits. Players don't necessarily defend the gaps that they are lined up over. Instead, you might have exterior defenders covering the A gap or interior defenders stunting outside. That makes it hard for offensive linemen to know who to block. But if the secondary is spread thin, it limits who can contribute in run support. The farther away defenders are from the ball, the harder it is to have them cover an interior run gap. This simplifies run defenses, and USF is a run-first team. This is a challenging matchup for the Navy defense.

It could be challenging on the other side of the ball, too. USF's defense is led by coordinator Todd Orlando, who has quite the history against the option. He was Todd Herman's defensive coordinator in 2015 when Navy had trouble moving the ball against Houston. Orlando's game plan that day was copied by almost every opponent Navy faced in 2016, but the Mids were prepared and won every time it was used, including in the rematch against the Cougars. Those game plans were derived from his time at Utah State, where he was 2-0 against Air Force. He was also the defensive coordinator at UConn when the Mids played the Huskies in 2006.

While I wouldn't be surprised to see one or two elements from that 2016 defense used on Saturday, it's unlikely we'll see that scheme used again, given that Navy won that game. Whatever Orlando does, though, it'll be aggressive. Daquan Evans leads the country in tackles for loss, but he isn't alone. As a team, USF averages nine TFLs per game, which is seventh in the country. That aggression comes at a cost, though; USF is 117th in the country in giving up plays of 20+ yards. But that's a risk they're willing to take. With the confidence they have in their offense to hold serve, they just need their defense to get a few break points.

This presents an interesting dilemma for the Mids. Normally, when facing a fast-tempo offense, Navy likes to slow things down even more than usual to limit the number of possessions in the game. They will undoubtedly do the same on Saturday. However, if USF sells out against the run, the Mids will have to take their shots downfield. Even if they succeed at doing so, that's going to speed up the pace of the game, which plays into USF's hands. And if they don't succeed, things can get ugly. This is a game where every yard will matter. It will be vital for Navy to stay on schedule in the face of an aggressive defense if they want to dictate the pace of the game.

I don't want to make USF out to be a complete juggernaut, because they aren't. They lost to Western Kentucky in the opener, and their win over Florida A&M wasn't exactly dominating. They have a young quarterback who isn't immune to turnovers and a team full of transfers who are still learning how to play together. This is the kind of team you want to play early in the season, because they will only get better as they gain experience and gel as a unit.

We'll see tomorrow just how far both teams have come.