When UCF, Houston, and Cincinnati left the American to join the Big 12, the question wasn't, "Who do we get to replace them?" The question was, "After we add UAB, who else do we get to replace them?"
UAB was the obvious first choice for the American. The school's ambitions both on and off the field made them a fit for the conference even before a spot opened up. UAB is a tier-one research university in a metropolitan area with a highly-regarded medical school and affiliated health system. Indeed, their growth and success as a university may have made some people uncomfortable. The University of Alabama Board of Trustees decided to drop football at the school in 2014. It was a controversial move, with many in Birmingham arguing that the board's real interest was in slowing the university's growth to keep it from infringing on Tuscaloosa. Colleges use Division I athletics, especially football, as a part of a larger strategy to convey an image of quality and to establish a national reach. Taking that away would undermine UAB's efforts.
If that was the plan, it backfired. The decision only galvanized the Blazer community, which rallied to reinstate the program. The school then built a new indoor practice facility and a $22 million football operations center. A new 47,000-seat stadium was built in downtown Birmingham with the Blazers as its primary tenant. They have had six straight winning seasons, including two C-USA championships.
It'll take some work to get to a seventh winning season, though. New head coach Trent Dilfer has had a bumpy ride in his first season. The Blazers come to Annapolis with a 3-6 record after a mild upset of FAU last week.
UAB's struggles are unusual after their recent run of success, but maybe not surprising for a coach in his first year at the college level. Before the Charlotte game, I talked about how some ADs are using outside-the-box thinking in their coaching hires. It's the line from Moneyball; if we think like the Yankees in here, we'll lose to the Yankees out there. I understood Charlotte's thinking when they hired Biff Poggi. But UAB is different; they've been successful. With the program entering the AAC-- a league that has been a launching pad for big-money jobs-- the UAB job undoubtedly drew a lot of interest. Instead, the school went with Dilfer, a Super Bowl-winning quarterback whose coaching experience was limited to a small Tennessee high school. It was a bold decision, and as bold decisions often do, it had its share of critics.
The record thus far would seem to validate the criticism, as would the bad press that came when Dilfer was a tad, uh, animated on the sideline in the Tulane game. (It wasn't the first time he's done something like this.) Still, to blame all of UAB's problems on Dilfer is unfair. The Blazers have faced a ferocious schedule. UAB's FBS opponents thus far are a combined 49-23, including games against AP #1 Georgia, #20 Tulane, and a 7-2 Memphis squad. Their remaining opponents-- the Mids, Temple, and North Texas-- are a much less daunting 9-17, giving the Blazers an opportunity to rebound. To make a bowl game in year one after the program stepped up to a more challenging conference would make this season an unqualified success for Dilfer.
There's reason to believe the Blazers can pull it off, too. Dilfer has delivered on the one thing you would expect from a Super Bowl-winning quarterback-turned-head-coach: a prolific offense anchored by stellar quarterback play. UAB is the American's leading passing offense, averaging 303 yards per game. They don't just dink-and-dunk their way down the field, either; they average a very respectable 8.1 yards per passing attempt, which is fifth in the conference. Of their 245 completed passes this year, 153 went for 10+ yards. The fact that they don't shy away from throwing downfield makes quarterback Jacob Zeno's 75.4% completion percentage nothing short of incredible.
Zeno isn't the only standout, either. Freshman Amare Thomas leads the team with 44 receptions, sixth-most in the conference. Redshirt senior Tehjaun Palmer has 609 receiving yards and five touchdowns while averaging almost 17 yards per catch. Running back Jermaine Brown Jr. is on the brink of setting the school record for all-purpose yards and is averaging 155.5 per game. The Blazers have threats all over the field.
Zeno missed the Memphis game with a concussion but returned last week with a career-best performance against FAU. He threw for 484 yards and five touchdowns in the Blazers' 45-42 win. This is bad news for a Navy team that just gave up over 400 passing yards to E.J. Warner and Temple. Still, while UAB is a much better offense than Temple, the Mids have faced even better offenses and held their own. Navy beat North Texas, the top offense in the AAC. And while the Mids lost to USF, the defense made enough plays to keep them in the game. They'll have to return to that form if they want to have a shot this week.
It won't be easy, but it's not impossible. Zeno is piling up the numbers, but he's also been good for an interception per game. Navy, on the other hand, is second in the nation in turnover margin. Also, while UAB has racked up the yardage, they aren't especially good at converting on third down, doing so only 39% of the time. That is partially due to a banged-up offensive line that gives up 2.67 sacks per game. Navy set a school record for sacks against North Texas, and anything close to that tomorrow will go a long way toward getting the same result on the scoreboard. The key will be in knowing how and when to bring pressure.
The Mids didn't do that much all-out blitzing against Temple. On most plays, they dropped six or seven into coverage. Rather than bringing numbers, they tried to get pressure by changing who was rushing. That often meant dropping interior defenders into a zone while bringing an edge rusher in from the second level. One reason why Warner was so efficient was that he recognized who the outside rusher was and threw where the pressure was coming from, like this:
It wasn't until the second half that Navy adjusted to this. Knowing that Warner would throw into the blitz, Coach Volker changed up the coverage, bringing a cornerback underneath behind the rusher:
But by that point, a whole lot of damage had already been done. Navy had done a decent job of hiding where the pressure was coming from for most of the season, but Warner cracked the code. The Mids will have to do some self-scouting to figure out their tendencies and change them up.
If they do bring pressure, it will probably make sense to do it on first and second down. Zeno's completion percentage on third down is just as spectacular as any other down, but those throws are usually in front of the sticks. When he's faced third down with four or more yards to go, Zeno has only picked up a first down on 36% of his throws. Winning on first and second down has to be a priority for Navy this week, not that it isn't every week.
Offensively, the Mids face a big challenge tomorrow. Every game UAB has played this season has been a shootout. Navy's defense can play a great game and the Blazers will still score points. Can Navy keep pace? UAB has given up more than their share of touchdowns this season, but we've seen how the quality of the opposing defense doesn't really affect how Navy's offense performs. Their execution and ability to generate big plays do. Neither has been a strength, and it has only worsened in recent weeks. Hopefully, Xavier Arline getting back into the swing of things at quarterback helps a little.
Compounding the problem is that UAB's coaching staff doesn't have much of an option history to base a plan on. Defensive coordinator Sione Ta'ufo'ou followed Dilfer from Lipscomb Academy, and I don't know how available (or relevant) any of his option film is. Linebackers coach Kenwick Thompson's last two jobs were at UNLV and Fresno State, where he faced Air Force three times. Each of those ended up as blowout wins for the Falcons, so I doubt we'll see those game plans recycled here. Navy needs to get off to a fast start, but that task gets harder if they have to spend their first drive figuring out UAB's game plan.
Navy has played football for a long time, so it's rare to see firsts for the program. Getting a new opponent in Annapolis is exciting. UAB is a solid addition to the conference, so hopefully, we'll see this series for years to come. It would be nice if the Mids can get it started with a win.
