When Navy and Tulsa meet on Saturday afternoon, it will be a matchup of the American Athletic Conference's two longest-tenured head coaches. Ken Niumatalolo is in his 15th season leading the Mids, while Philip Montgomery is in his 8th season at the helm of the Golden Hurricane program. That the two will face each other for the eighth time is an unlikely story.
Longevity is not the norm in the American Athletic Conference. While the league doesn't have the same influence and financial heft of the Power Five conferences, it has proven itself to be a step above the rest; a sort of college football middle class. When a Power Five conference is looking to fill its ranks after being raided, it's usually AAC schools at the top of their list. That puts the league in an unusual situation. Because it plays at a high level, the coaches who win there are attractive candidates for big-money schools looking to rebuild. Conversely, that high level of play also leads to swift dismissals for coaches whose teams aren't meeting the league standard. One way or another, AAC schools have seen more than their fair share of turnover.
That hasn't been the case at Tulsa. Theirs is an unusual situation; Montgomery has always seemed to be on the verge of something. After inheriting a team that had won only two games the year before his arrival, he took Tulsa to a bowl game in his first season. In year two, he led the Golden Hurricane to ten wins. At that point, he looked like The Next Big Thing in coaching, ripe for the picking for some down-on-their-luck power program. Then the wheels fell off the wagon; Tulsa suffered ten losses the next year and followed that up with a 3-9 campaign in 2018. Suddenly, Tulsa had gone from worrying about holding onto Montgomery to worrying if they could afford his buyout. Then in 2020, Montgomery had Tulsa back on top and playing in the conference championship game. After a bowl win last year, he signed a two-year contract extension. It's been quite the ride.
The ride has lasted as long as it has in part because Montgomery has made the most of what he has. Most coaches have an idea of what they want their program to look like and work on creating that team identity. For Montgomery, that identity has changed from year to year. Montgomery’s high-water mark came in 2016 when his offense was the most well-rounded in the country. That team could do everything; their 527 yards of offense per game was fourth in the nation and split almost equally between the run and the pass. Since then, it’s been a swinging pendulum. Some teams were good on the ground, others better through the air. The 2020 team was led by an outstanding defense. Critics would say that Tulsa lacks a real identity. Others would say Montgomery coaches his team in whatever manner best suits his talent.
This year, the talent is best suited for the passing game. Quarterback Davis Brin threw for 3,269 yards and 18 touchdowns in 2021 and is back for his senior year. He started the season picking up where he left off. After three games, Brin led the nation in both passing yards (402 per game) and passing TDs (11). His favorite target is wide receiver Keylon Stokes. Stokes missed most of last season due to injury, but he’s making up for lost time. His 613 receiving yards are second in the nation, and his 7.7 receptions per game are seventh. He isn’t Tulsa’s only receiving threat, either. Isaiah Epps, JuanCarlos Santana, and Malachai Jones have combined for 980 yards and nine touchdowns of their own. All four have at least one reception of 30+ yards this season.
And that’s where Tulsa has done the most damage so far. The Golden Hurricane lives for the big play; their 29 passes of 20 yards or more are the third-most in the country. This is a problem for a Navy defense starting a junior and three sophomores in the secondary. The Mids have played well for the most part, but if they have a weakness, it’s giving up long touchdowns through the air; they’ve had at least one in every game. With four credible deep threats for a team tenth in the nation in passing offense, Tulsa could be the Navy secondary’s most formidable challenge to date.
On paper, at least. Fortunately for Navy, though, it isn’t that simple. The wildcard on Saturday is Brin’s health. He suffered an ankle injury against Ole Miss and had to leave the game. He played last week against Cincinnati, but it wasn’t pretty, throwing for 249 yards with two interceptions. He is expected to play against the Mids, but how healthy will he be? The answer to that question is what will dictate the course of the game.
If Brin’s ankle is still less than 100 percent, things get much dicier for Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane has started four different offensive line combinations in five games. They have yet to find a group that works for them, and it shows. Tulsa is 129th in the country in sacks allowed, with 4.2 per game. In fairness, that number is skewed by the nine sacks that Cincinnati had last week. Still, that performance proves the point. Navy averages three sacks per game, 18th in the country. That is not a favorable situation for Tulsa, and it gets even worse if Brin isn’t mobile enough to avoid the pass rush, as was the case against the Bearcats. If there is anything that can help a young secondary, it’s a front seven that gets to the quarterback before receivers can get downfield. If Brin plays, Montgomery will likely want to get the ball out of his hands quickly, which negates the downfield passing that is Tulsa’s biggest threat.
Even last year, a healthy Brin was rarely comfortable in the pocket against Navy. Tulsa’s offensive line had a difficult night. In this play, the center recognizes the blitz and adjusts protection accordingly. However, not everyone got the message. The center and the right tackle all slide their assignments. The right guard did not, double-teaming Diego Fagot but leaving Jacob Busic untouched on his way to the quarterback.
Here, Navy looked like they were rushing six but really only brought three. Four offensive linemen ended up blocking nobody, and the Mids had an unblocked rusher.
Tulsa can’t afford another performance like that, especially if Brin is a statue in the pocket.
The other strong possibility is that Montgomery has an increased role for freshman quarterback Braylon Braxton. Braxton has traditionally been used in short-yardage situations and the red zone, although he played most of the game against Ole Miss. Tulsa became more of a running team with him under center, rushing for 262 yards. While it’s impressive that Tulsa could shift gears so easily against an SEC opponent, running the ball plays to Navy’s strengths. Even after playing an option team last week, the Mids are still 25th in the country against the run. The more Tulsa runs, the shorter the game gets. Usually, that favors Navy.
Not that anything is usual about Navy this year. The Mids are averaging a paltry 176 rushing yards and 13.3 points per game. Navy started last season in much the same way, but against Tulsa, they began showing signs of improvement. Tai Lavatai struggled to make option reads for most of last year, and the Mids abandoned the triple because of it. That changed against the Golden Hurricane.
After going nowhere for most of the first half, Navy tried the midline triple. The wide receiver and the playside tackle traded blocking responsibilities since the former would have a better blocking angle on the scraping linebacker the defense was using. The tackle ran outside to block the cornerback. Navy tried this early in the second quarter, but Lavatai missed the first read. They ran it again just before halftime, leading to Carlinos Acie’s 64-yard run.
While the blocking assignments changed, Navy continued to run the midline triple throughout the second half.
The other major adjustment that Navy made was lining up in the heavy formation. The heavy is an unbalanced line, with two tackles on one side of the formation and a wide receiver lined up as a “tackle” on the other side. When Navy went unbalanced, Tulsa’s defensive line shifted toward the strong side of the formation. Now the DE was aligned over the A gap, and the outside linebacker was lined up over the B gap. The OLB became #1 in the count, while the cornerback became #2. This gave the Mids better blocking angles for running the triple, double-teaming the defensive end with the guard and center. The receiver “tackle” released outside to block a potential scrape from the linebacker.
But how different will Tulsa’s game plan be this year? They have a new defensive coordinator, but he was an internal promotion, so he isn’t coming in with a different option history. Navy won the game, but 20-17 doesn't set the world on fire. Tulsa defensive coordinator Luke Olson might feel that last year's plan would work with a couple of tweaks. Tulsa runs a base 3-3-5, which was the preferred alignment for each of Navy's first three opponents. While alignment alone shouldn't really matter, the Navy offense looked awful in those games. I don't think this year's defense will be a radical departure from last year.
We're approaching the halfway point of the season, and at 1-3, Navy needs wins. The end of the season looms large, with trips to UCF and Cincinnati on either side of the Notre Dame game in Baltimore. There is no margin for error. It might not be apparent, but Navy's offense has made progress. Baby steps are not enough, though. This week, they have to put it all together.
