In the college football world, fans and media both like to typecast certain programs. Some are blue bloods. Others are underachievers. There are “tradition” programs and programs that wear a different uniform every week. There are "academic" teams, “BCS busters,” and perennial losers. Just about everyone has an unofficial label attached to them. Sometimes more than one.
SMU is like everyone else. Their role is that of the “sleeping giant,” the program that seems to have everything going for it and is just waiting for the spark that’ll light that powder keg. If you’re a fan of the Mustangs, you’re probably sick of the label. There comes a point where “potential” transitions from being an optimistic word to one of disappointment when that potential goes unrealized. Indeed, it had been a while since we’ve heard the term used to describe SMU. People seemed to be coming around to the idea that maybe this giant would never wake up. But then the Mustangs were invited to join the ACC, and all the talk started up again as a way to make the move more palatable to an unconvinced public.
To be fair, there is a reason why people apply that label to SMU. In theory, the school has just about everything you’d want to build a robust program. They are academically credible. They have donors with enough money to fund the space program. They have an iconic look, an on-campus stadium, and they’re located in a recruiting hotbed with a deep football culture. They also have a long history that includes major bowl games, All-Americans, the first Heisman Trophy winner, and major conference membership.
Of course, that history also includes the NCAA death penalty, and despite everything SMU has going for it, the football program has never been the same. There was hope that the new stadium might be the catalyst the program was looking for, but it wasn’t. The school hired June Jones away from Hawaii right after he led them to the Sugar Bowl. That didn’t do it, either. Neither did leaving the Conference-USA and joining the American. The program has certainly improved; they’ve spent 19 weeks in the AP poll since 2019. That isn’t what most people consider “giant” territory, though.
But maybe that’s starting to change. SMU is trying to wrap up its best season in the post-penalty era. The Mustangs are 9-2, with a chance to reach 11 wins for the first time since the 1982 Pony Express team. A win over Navy would also give them their first berth in American Athletic Conference championship game. A conference title would be the perfect way for them to make a statement before joining the ACC next year.
So why are the Mustangs reaching new heights? One could argue that the schedule has a lot to do with it. SMU has benefitted from the departure of Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF more than anyone in the AAC. They were 6-16 against those schools since joining the conference in 2013. This year, they played only one team in the league with a winning record (Memphis). The combined record of the rest of their conference schedule is 20-46. They’ve outscored their conference opposition 308-120, including a 55-0 blowout of Temple and a 69-10 thrashing of Tulsa.
There’s more to the record than just the schedule, though. The Mustangs are one of the most well-rounded teams in the country. They are tenth in the country in offense, averaging 470 yards per game. Their 40.3 points per game is sixth. Defensively, they’re a top-15 unit in both total defense and scoring defense. SMU scores points, and they keep other teams out of the end zone. This is the most complete SMU team that Navy has ever faced.
The transfer portal helped them get that way. SMU has 46 transfers on the roster, including 11 starters. That’s a lot, but it’s not unusual anymore. The difference with SMU is in who’s transferring. SMU’s recruiting is hyper-focused on Texas, something that started under former head coach Chad Morris. Since the creation of the portal, the state has been the theme of their portal recruiting as well. In the North Texas preview, we talked about how the quality of Texas recruits was a key driver in the schools the American chose to make up for their losses. SMU has become a prime destination for recruits who left the state but want to return home. That has been especially true with grad transfers who see the value of an SMU master’s degree. Undergraduate transfers can be hit-or-miss; sometimes the reason why a player leaves a school can be as much of a roadblock at his new school. Grad transfers, on the other hand, have already proven themselves in the classroom and were often starters on their old teams. They can have more of an immediate impact. SMU has six grad transfers in their starting lineup.
They also have plenty of home-grown talent, though. Quarterback Preston Stone is a sophomore who plays above his experience level. Stone completes nearly 60 percent of his throws while averaging 260 yards per game. His 25 touchdown passes are second-most in the conference and top-15 nationally, and he has thrown only one interception in his last six games. He has three 300-yard passing games this year, including 371 in one half against Tulsa.
Quarterbacks putting up big numbers has been a constant for SMU in recent years. This season, they have a running game to go along with it. Head coach Rhett Lashlee has been an impact offensive coordinator everywhere he’s been. He took over for Gus Malzahn as Arkansas State’s play-caller and helped lead the Red Wolves to the 2012 Sun Belt title. His Auburn offenses were the most productive in school history. At UConn, he took an offense that finished 122nd in total offense and turned it into a top-50 unit. In his stint as SMU’s coordinator, Lashlee’s offenses were some of the most prolific in the country. In 2019, Shane Buechele threw for nearly 4,000 yards, Xavier Jones ran for 1,276 yards and 23 TDs (most in the country), and James Proche led the nation with 111 catches.
While Lashlee's offenses have put up big passing numbers, the best have complemented that with an effective run game. His 2019 unit averaged more than 180 yards per game on the ground. Last year’s team only averaged 156. This year, SMU is back to their previous standard, averaging almost 186 per game, which is in the top 30 in the country. Both Jaylan Knighton and LJ Johnson Jr. have 100-yard rushing games this season, including the North Texas game where they both topped the century mark.
The common thread in SMU’s ability to run and throw, and the real driver behind the offense’s success, is the offensive line. The Mustangs have one of the most experienced lines in the country, with 254 games played between them entering this season. Only Florida State and Duke have more. That line includes two juniors, two seniors, and a graduate transfer in the starting lineup, with even more upperclassmen providing depth. Not only have they paved the way for the running backs, but they have also kept defenders from getting pressure on Stone. SMU allows only 1.18 sacks per game, one of the best rates in the country. That gives Stone the time he needs to find receivers downfield. SMU has 52 passes of 20+ yards, which is the seventh-most in the nation.
Indeed, that was the problem for the Navy defense last year. Of Tanner Mordecai's 336 passing yards, 306 came from eight plays. The Mids kept SMU in check for most of the night right up until the ball went over their heads. Avoiding a repeat performance is Navy’s top priority, but it will be hard to do that if they can’t get pressure on Stone. Over their last two games, the Mids were able to overpower the offensive lines they faced without bringing extra rushers. They won’t be able to do that against SMU. They will likely try some simulated pressure early on, but if that isn’t effective and Stone can nickel-and-dime his way down the field, the Mids will eventually have to bring numbers in certain spots. That will leave the secondary in a lot of one-on-one matchups. There is no right answer against this offense. Navy will just have to play the situation hope the wrong call doesn’t burn them.
When Navy has the ball, it’s hard to say how SMU will line up. Last year’s game was one of the offense’s best performances of the season, at least statistically. Tai Lavatai, with 120 yards, had the best rushing game of his career. The Mids rolled up more than 500 yards of total offense, actually outgaining the Mustangs. It’s a safe bet, then, that we’ll see something new out of defensive coordinator Scott Symons. Whatever they choose to do, they likely have the personnel to make it work.
Once upon a time, SMU gave up yards but excelled at forcing turnovers. This year, they’re the total package. They’re a top-25 unit both in total defense and against the run, and they’ve done it without sacrificing their earlier aggressiveness, ranking fifth in the country in sacks and averaging nearly seven TFLs per game. Navy will need to sustain drives and control the clock if they want to have a shot in this game, but that will be harder to do against a team that lives in their backfield.
This game is a monumental challenge for the Mids, but with a bowl game on the line, the team should also be motivated. They’ve won four out of their last six, which hopefully gives them confidence, too. I don’t know if confidence will help them block better, but it can’t hurt. As big an underdog as they are, they need all the help they can get.
