The Navy-Memphis Preview
It can be difficult for football programs outside of the wealthiest conferences to maintain success. They usually can’t afford to. As soon as a team gets any good, a school with a bigger budget hires their coach away. Sometimes he’s replaced by someone from the staff that keeps the momentum going, but then he gets hired away, and the cycle continues. Hiring coaches is a difficult task, and there’s a measure of luck involved. The more coaches you have to hire, the more likely it is that your luck will run out, and you’ll eventually hire the wrong one. That goes for assistant coaches too. Besides, every time you’re forced to hire a new head coach, recruiting takes a hit. It makes it tough to build a winning program.
Knowing how hard sustained winning is makes Memphis that much more impressive. After enduring six consecutive losing seasons from 2008-2013, Memphis exploded in 2014 with a 10-3 record under head coach Justin Fuente. They haven’t had a losing record since, a span that included a conference title and a Cotton Bowl berth in 2019. Since 2014, Memphis has 68 victories, the most of any American Athletic Conference team. The Tigers have accomplished all of this despite experiencing all the turnover you’d expect from a successful program. The Tigers are on their third head coach since the streak of winning seasons began. Ryan Silverfield took over after Mike Norvell headed to Florida State, and Virginia Tech plucked Fuente. Those head coaches kept having their coordinators hired away too, including Darrell Dickey, Clark Lea, Chip Long, and Kenny Dillingham. If continuity is essential to success, then Memphis is a minor miracle.
Or perhaps they’re just a testament to the old football adage that it’s not about Xs and Os; it’s about Jimmies and Joes. The one constant in the Memphis program over the last eight years is that they have absolutely bathed in talent, especially on offense. From Paxton Lynch to Riley Ferguson to Brady White, each successive quarterback broke school records set by their predecessors. They’ve had all-conference wide receivers in Anthony Miller and Damonte Coxie. Their line of running backs has been as good as any school in the country, including NFL talents like Darrell Henderson, Patrick Taylor Jr., Tony Pollard, Antonio Gibson, and Kenneth Gainwell. Even with all the upheaval, the Tigers were still a top-5 offense from 2017-2019.
That streak hit a pothole last year as everything else did in 2020. Gainwell decided to opt-out of the season in August. Coxie called it quits in October to prepare for the NFL Draft. In all, 20 Memphis players either opted out, declared for the draft, or transferred. Not all of them were significant contributors, but many were. Nevertheless, Silverfield kept the Memphis machine rolling, leading them to an 8-3 record and a win in the Montgomery Bowl.
This season, things are a little closer to normal. Memphis is averaging just under 500 yards per game on offense thanks to a new generation of talent. At quarterback, Seth Henigan is eighth in the nation in passing with 323 yards per game. He isn’t just a dink-and-dunk passer, either; his 14 touchdowns and 14.91 yards per completion average are both ranked 11th. Against a well-regarded Tulsa defense, he threw for 463 yards, which is the fourth-most in school history. All this, and he’s only a freshman.
Henigan's favorite target is the lightning-fast Calvin Austin III, a redshirt senior whose 837 receiving yards are the most in the country. Austin isn't very big at 5'9" and 162 pounds, but his speed makes him a singular focus for any defense. He has posted two of the top five receiving performances in Memphis history in only six games this season. Austin is as consistent as he is fast, with a school-record five straight 100-yard receiving games.
Memphis also appears to have found their next great running back. While last year's leading rusher, Rodrigues Clark, is back this season, redshirt freshman Brandon Thomas has carried most of the load in the backfield in 2021. With 586 rushing yards, Thomas is ranked in the top 20 in the FBS. He averages over six yards per carry and has six touchdowns.
Interestingly enough, despite the enormous passing numbers, it's the running game that has been the key to Memphis' fortunes this season. There is a considerable difference in how Memphis has moved the ball between their 3-0 start and their current three-game losing streak. The more reliant they've been on their passing game, the worse they've been. In their three wins, Memphis averaged 280 passing yards and 224 rushing yards. In their three losses, the Tigers averaged 366 passing yards and 128 rushing yards. This hasn't just been a case of Memphis throwing more in their losses because they were behind, either. All three losses were close games, and the Tigers held a second-half lead in two of them. They've had the same number of rushing attempts in the wins and losses, but they've been far less effective in the latter. After rushing for 5.84 ypc in their first three games, Memphis has run for only 3.45 ypc in their last three.
The running game is so vital to Memphis because that is what brings consistency to the offense. As I mentioned earlier, theirs is not a dink-and-dunk scheme when they are playing their best. The Tigers like to take their shots downfield. While Henigan is 11th in the country in yards per completion, he is a far more pedestrian 67th in completion percentage. When you're averaging 5-6 yards per carry, that's OK; take your shot on first down, run on second and third, then do it all again. Without that consistent running, it's harder to maintain drives while still taking chances. Of Memphis' last 25 drives, only three lasted longer than five minutes. More than half (15) ended with a punt, a turnover, or a missed field goal.
If stopping the run is vital to stopping Memphis, it makes for an interesting predicament for the Navy defense. The Mids have used a three-safety look in AAC competition, and thus far, it has served them well. It would make sense to do the same this week to limit the big-play potential of Austin. Of course, fewer defenders in the tackle box means open running lanes. When Memphis has the ball, this will be like a game of chicken. Navy will line up to prevent the big play. Is Memphis patient enough to run the ball? If so, how long can Navy go before they're forced to bring another defender into the box? The answer likely depends on the performance of the Navy offense.
The difference between good Memphis teams and great Memphis teams has been the play of their defense. The Tigers are never good, at least statistically. However, the best Memphis teams have at least an average defense. Others have been downright bad. This year's outfit looks like it's trending more toward the latter, coming into the matchup with Navy ranking 117th in total defense (457 ypg). This can be misleading, though. There is a difference between "defense" and "option defense." Because defending option teams is so different than defending everyone else, it isn't unusual to see teams excel at one while struggling against the other.
Last year's Navy-Memphis game was an excellent example of this. The Tigers finished the year 89th in total defense, but they came out the victors in a 10-7 slugfest against Navy. Memphis defended the Mids about as well as we've seen from a non-service-academy team. Indeed, that's exactly what they looked like: a service academy defense. Like the other academies, they lined up in an odd front, were very aggressive with backside pursuit, but still well-coached enough to not fall for misdirection or play action. They were also extremely good at beating blocks on an individual level, although Navy had a hand in that. Regardless, for an otherwise struggling defense to come out and play like Memphis did against the option was extremely impressive. It probably shouldn't have been a surprise, though, considering defensive coordinator Mike MacIntyre's long history against the option, and Navy in particular.
With the Tigers playing defense like a service academy, Navy’s playcalling mirrored what we see from them in service academy games. The goal was to manage the aggression of the secondary and backside defenders, and they attempted to do so in three main ways. First, they ran the fullback off tackle, motioning an extra blocker from across the formation to the play side. Second, they ran a lot of zone, both inside and outside. Zone blocking creates the opportunity for cutback lanes behind overly aggressive defenders. Third, they ran the fullback trap, using the slotbacks to run the safeties away from the play.
The trap led to Navy’s biggest plays, although they could only draw from that well so often. On the first play here, you can see the fullback run behind the safeties and the backside ILB. Memphis eventually started to recognize when that play was coming, though; you can hear someone yelling “trap trap trap” before the second play. After that, the Mids had to use different motion to keep from tipping their hand. In the third play, you can see how the motion of the slotbacks had the safeties running in opposite directions, opening up the middle of the field.
From an Xs and Os perspective, it all worked, which is why Nelson Smith ran for 149 yards. It did not, however, work consistently. Navy couldn’t sustain drives because, too often, someone missed a blocking assignment or was just flat-out beaten.
That could potentially be good news for Navy. The offensive line is playing better than they did last year, at least in recent weeks. Against SMU, Navy’s biggest problem was with triple option reads, but Memphis’ game plan meant that the triple wasn’t run as often as it usually is. After holding the Mids to seven points last year, Memphis will probably use the same plan again. In theory, this Navy team should be better prepared to handle it.
If not, it’s bad news. The Mids have officially entered must-win territory. With four losses already and games against Cincinnati and Notre Dame on the horizon, there is no longer a margin for error if Navy hopes to make a bowl game. With a consistent performance from the offense, Navy probably wins this game. Of course, we haven’t seen such a performance yet, even against UCF. If there’s a first time for everything, Navy’s time must be now.
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