The Navy-Air Force Preview

One of the most overrated tropes in the sports world is the concept of revenge. How often is that presented as a story? Team A beats Team B, and the next time they meet, Team B wants REVENGE! I've always found that to be an odd way to look at things. Aren't both teams trying to accomplish the same goal? Is a team wronged when their opponent has the audacity to win against them? It never made sense to me.

This week's matchup between Navy and Air Force feels like it should be an exception, though. The circumstances around last year's game were unprecedented and stacked against the Mids. On the one hand, you had a Navy team that missed spring practice and didn't have contact practices all camp. On the other hand, you had an Air Force team that not only practiced in the spring but practiced for six weeks in the fall, believing that they would only be playing two games: Navy and Army. The Mountain West had stated that they intended to play a spring season and only changed course about a week before Navy and Air Force met. One team hadn't prepared, while the other prepared for nothing else. The result was about what you'd expect.

It would be reasonable, then, to feel that the Navy team was wronged by the whole situation. Maybe the "revenge" angle finally makes sense.

Or at least, maybe it would have if Navy didn't get blown out by Marshall. Now the word of the day isn't revenge. It's redemption, with a side of urgency. As the first leg of the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy series, the Navy-Air Force matchup always carries added weight. After last week, though, it wouldn't matter who Navy faced on Saturday. They need a win in the worst way. They need to look like Navy again.

This week, though, the Mids won't be the only team on the field that's feeling added pressure. A few screws are being turned on Air Force, too. The Falcons didn't exactly set the world on fire in 2020. They blew out Navy to open their abbreviated season, but after a 10-7 loss to Army at the end, they only finished 3-3. Of course, last year was weird for everyone, so the results should be taken with a grain of salt. It isn't the .500 record that adds a little heat to the Falcons this year, though.

When it appeared that the Mountain West wouldn't play football in the fall, Air Force made an extraordinary (and frankly egregious) move for a service academy. They sent 35 players home for a semester to give them each an extra fall in which to play. It was a de facto redshirt, something for which Troy Calhoun has campaigned for years. In what was surely an uncoordinated move, nearly all of those players were on defense, including 10 of the 11 players expected to start. In essence, Air Force sacrificed 2020 to have a stacked roster in 2021. But what if the Falcons don't come through? Regardless of the dubious methods in which it was arranged, this is a singular opportunity for Air Force. There has to be pressure to capitalize.

And so, the table is set for Saturday. Navy, with an offense filled with youth and first-time starters, faces a defense in Air Force that has unprecedented depth and experience but hasn't won in Annapolis in a decade.

Service academy games are some of the most boring to preview because they don't change very much. The teams are usually mirror images of each other, and know each other so well that it's difficult to move the ball. Last year, that balance between Navy and Air Force was upset due to the difference in how each team prepared. One of the most striking things about last year's game was how much faster Air Force was. I don't mean in a track meet, 40-yard dash sense, but in how much faster they played-- offensive linemen firing off the line of scrimmage, how quickly defenders reacted, etc.

Here's an example of what I'm talking about. Here are two triple option plays. Both quarterbacks make the correct read, and the blockers for both teams carry out their correct assignments. On the first play, Air Force’s backside safety ignores the twirl motion of the Navy slotback and makes a beeline to the ball immediately at the snap:

In the second play, Navy’s backside safety hesitates for a split second while he reads the play. Rather than make the tackle, he ends up getting caught up in traffic, and the quarterback runs past him:

Both of Air Force’s playside receivers came inside to block the safeties while leaving Cam Kinley unblocked. Kinley was also slow to recognize the play, following the receivers downfield instead of stepping up in run support. That hesitation, however slight, was the difference between a two-yard gain and a 13-yard gain. When repeated over the course of an entire game, those kinds of plays are the difference between winning and losing. Air Force had 15 plays of 10+ yards in last season's matchup. Navy had only four.

Here’s another example. The Navy defense often used a gap exchange between the inside linebackers, where the playside ILB would attack the A gap while the backside ILB would loop around to fill the B gap. When it works, it looks like this:

Unfortunately, it didn’t always work. Here, rather than step into the B gap as he did on the previous play, Diego Fagot paused, which gave the quarterback room to run.

These are plays by experienced players who didn't make these mistakes in the previous year's game. The less prepared you are, the more you hesitate. This year, at least practice-wise, the teams should be on equal footing.

Because they are so familiar with each other, it's often the team that can execute the unexpected that has the edge in this game. In 2017, the Mids unveiled a completely new offense that they worked on for two years. In 2018, the Air Force defense lined up in an even front against Navy for the first time in the option era. Air Force almost pulled off a miracle comeback in 2019 by passing for 246 yards.

The changes don't have to be that extreme, though. Sometimes it's a trick play that can change the tide of a close game. Other times, the changes are more subtle, whether by using a new formation or changing your usual tendencies. Last year, the one bright spot for the Navy offense came on a pass from Tyger Goslin to Myles Fells. The Mids motioned into a formation where both slotbacks were lined up in a bunch with a wide receiver. In this formation, Navy often runs a fullback toss. Air Force shot the cornerback in anticipation of that, but it left them with only two defenders to cover three receivers:

Self-scouting is a must when your opponent knows you so well.

The question then becomes who will be capable of pulling off the changes you want to make. In that, Air Force has a few options. The Falcons return both of their leading rushers from last year in fullback Brad Roberts and quarterback Haaziq Daniels. Roberts only played in four games last season but still rolled up 461 yards and 5 touchdowns. On top of his 297 rushing yards, Daniels also completed 55.6 percent of his passes for another 433 yards. When the Falcons go to the air, they expect to get a big year out of 6'3" receiver David Cormier. Air Force has a slotback position similar to Navy, but they use them differently. They call one a tailback, while the other is a wide receiver in a hybrid WR/RB position. This year, Micah Davis is off to a hot start in that hybrid role after 101 rushing yards and 2 TDs against Lafayette.

One thing that Air Force doesn't have is experience on the offensive line. The Falcons have the least experienced offensive line in the country, with five new starters who had only three combined starts between them entering the season. It's a bigger group than past Air Force offensive lines; their 295-pound average weight is the largest I can remember from the Falcons. They'll need to put that size to good use if Daniels is going to have the time to deliver the ball to those playmakers.

One area of concern for Navy has to be special teams. In a close contest, every point matters; a bad snap on a field goal led to a blocked attempt last week. In a close contest, field position is everything; Navy averaged only 35.8 yards over five punts last week. Air Force has long had a reputation for blocking kicks, and Navy gave up one blocked punt while coming uncomfortably close on the rest against Marshall. When two teams are so evenly matched, any detail in the game could be the difference.

On paper, Air Force has the advantage here. Both teams have experienced defenses, but Air Force is more experienced. Both teams have big questions on offense, but Air Force has fewer. This will be an uphill climb, but if the Mids can pull it off, it will make the opener a distant memory.

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