Navy is coming off of a disappointing season where the offense underperformed. Now, Navy is 2-0, and the once-indicted offense has scored a combined 87 points. However, the improvement has come against a Patriot League team and a team from the American that only won one conference game the previous year. They need an opportunity to show their turnaround is for real. They'll get that opportunity when they take on Memphis, one of the preseason favorites in the conference.
But I'm not talking about 2024. No, I'm talking about 2019.
It's remarkable how similar the two scenarios are. It's also a little bit sobering. The 2019 team is among the best in Navy history and maybe the best of the last 50 years. Yet as good as they were, they still couldn't get by Memphis, who went on to win the American that year and represented the conference in the Cotton Bowl. The challenge facing this year's Mids is no different, with the 2024 edition of the Tigers possibly being the best yet to line up against Navy.
Memphis is coming off an impressive 20-12 win over Florida State in Tallahassee. Some might argue with the "impressive" label, and the Seminoles indeed have their issues. But to dismiss that game as just another FSU letdown would be a mistake. Memphis isn't the first team from the American to beat an ACC team, and they won't be the last. But when it happens, it usually follows a certain template. When you think about the typical non-BCS/Group of Five teams that make a splash on the national scene, you usually think of a particular formula. They hire a coach who brings a mile-a-minute offense with him, and they outscore their power conference competition in crazy shootouts. You think about Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl or Blake Bortles leading UCF to a 52-42 win over Baylor. They might make some plays on defense, but their identity is rooted in their offense.
That wasn't the case when Memphis played Florida State. This was no shootout. This was a physical, in-the-trenches fight, and the Tigers prevailed. For all of Florida State's troubles, their offensive line entered the season with a whopping 190 combined career starts. The Memphis defensive line dominated them, holding FSU to 37 rushing yards. This game wasn't a case of a scrappy upstart figuring out a way to hang on against Goliath. This was two peers facing off on the field, and the better team won. It was reminiscent of games that Cincinnati played the year it went to the Playoff. Memphis looked like a team that belonged.
It shouldn't be a surprise. In the new NIL era, Memphis has as robust an operation as anyone. Back in April, FedEx announced a $25 million NIL initiative with the school to be distributed over five years. That influx of money has made Memphis a prime destination for players in the transfer portal. Including junior college transfers, the Tigers have 34 players listed on their depth chart who began their careers at other schools. For some teams, that would be a problem. Two weeks ago, we saw how disjointed Temple looked. But Memphis is in a completely different position. They have no trouble recruiting; even before the advent of the portal, they were always one of the American's most talented teams. Head coach Ryan Silverfield doesn't take transfers because he has to; he takes the transfers he wants. And with the NIL money, he has no shortage of options.
The result is a complete roster with experience from top to bottom. On offense, Memphis has 18 players on their depth chart that are a junior or older. The group is led once again by four-year starting quarterback Seth Henigan, who was fourth in all of FBS last season with 3,883 passing yards. Both of his favorite targets are also back; receivers Roc Taylor and Demeer Blankumsee combined for 1,984 yards in 2023. The defense is even more experienced, with an incredible 25 players on the depth chart who are at least a junior. That unit is led by MIKE linebacker Chandler Martin, who registered 95 tackles last year to earn a place on the all-conference first team.
Talent and experience aren't a new phenomenon at Memphis, although that was usually only reflected on one side of the ball in the past. The Tigers were a top-25 scoring offense in the last two years. Defensively, though, they have struggled. Last year, they allowed 423 yards and almost 29 points per game. They've finished 90th or worse in scoring defense twice in the last three seasons. So far this year, however, it's a different story. Memphis has allowed only 9.7 points per game. They're 11th in total defense, giving up a scant 224.7 yards per contest.
In his press conference on Tuesday, Navy offensive coordinator Drew Cronic gave the Memphis defense what I thought was a genuine compliment.
"They're good," he said. "They run to the ball. They play extremely hard. They do what they're supposed to do. I've been really impressed with how sound they've been. They really went after Florida State. It looks like a bunch of guys who've played together."
That sense of team defense is the one element that has been missing from the Memphis program as it has reached for the elusive "next level." Former defensive coordinator Matt Barnes left for Mississippi State last year, leaving linebackers coach Jordon Hankins with the interim DC job for the Liberty Bowl against Iowa State. Hankins made drastic scheme changes for that game to limit the Cyclones' run game, and they worked. Iowa State had zero rushing yards, and the Tigers won 36-26. It was enough to convince Silverfield to remove the interim tag from Hankins and give him the job permanently. Perhaps emboldened by his initial success, Hankins made changes to the scheme he inherited, and so far, they have paid off.
When you consider the kind of offense that Drew Cronic runs, you understand why his quote was such high praise. As a practitioner of a Wing-T-based offense, Cronic relies on misdirection and deception. It's more difficult to achieve success that way against a defense that plays as a team. A defense full of players who do their jobs and trust their teammates to do theirs makes Cronic's job that much harder, which leads us to one of the keys of the game for Navy.
Navy's offense has relied on the big play to score their points this season. Four of Navy's 12 touchdowns have come on one-play drives. If Memphis' defense continues to play disciplined football, though, big plays will be few and far between. The Mids will need to show they are capable of the level of execution it takes to grind out longer possessions on their way to the end zone. That makes the matchup between Navy's offensive line and an athletic Memphis defensive line crucial.
One thing that might be working in Navy's favor is the element of surprise. We've watched the Navy offense for two games and wondered if there are more arrows in the quiver. So far, the new offense has looked an awful lot like Navy offenses of old. Was that intentional? That question will finally be answered. It might make sense to hide your cards against Temple, but against Memphis, and with an extra week to prepare? That's not happening. There's no doubt that many elements of Cronic's offense are similar to Navy's triple option offenses of years past. If there are differences, we will be sure to see them on Saturday.
One of those potential differences could be the tight end position. The tight end is a fundamental component of any Wing-T offense, and in two games, we've seen more catches from tight ends than we did in the previous 30 years. And that's with players who weren't recruited to the position, which makes Cody Howard a potential wild card here. Howard is the one tight end on the roster that comes close to fitting the long-term vision for the position in Cronic's offense as a receiver. A knee injury has kept him from practicing, but he is back and reportedly ready to make his season debut this weekend. If that's true, there's no helpful film on him, which could make him valuable as the Mids search for ways to create big plays. But how rusty will he be after missing so much practice? How well does he know the offense? My guess is that there are too many variables for him to play the whole game, but Cronic will have a play or two with Howard in mind.
On the other side of the ball, it's a real pick-your-poison situation for the Navy defense. It's possible to rattle Henigan if you can pressure him, but if you try to and fail, he'll make you pay. We saw that in the 2022 game. The Mids held Memphis to 2.8 yards per carry and sacked Henigan four times. On 31 of his pass attempts, he was limited to only 245 yards. That's good! The problem is that he didn't throw 31 passes. He threw 34, and those other three were completions of 79, 50, and 41 yards, which turned what could have been a close game into a rout. Last year, the Mids focused on limiting those long pass plays, and they were successful: Henigan threw for only 218 yards. But Memphis was just able to get their big plays on the ground, with Blake Watson running for 169 yards on only ten carries. Nothing Navy tries seems to work.
If there is a potential soft underbelly to the Memphis offense, it could be their ground game. So far, it has been inconsistent. After rolling for 211 rushing yards against Troy, the Tigers ran for only 65 yards against Florida State. It's easy to excuse that performance, but Memphis could only muster 59 rushing yards in their opener against North Alabama, too. Granted, Memphis may have been keeping things as plain as possible in that game. This isn't the most compelling evidence that something is amiss. But it isn't irrelevant, either. Memphis lost three games last year, and they just happened to be the only three games where they ran for less than 100 yards. Their offense is most effective when they keep defenses guessing. Navy can't allow the ball to fly over their heads if they commit to stopping the run like they usually do.
With their 2-0 start, the Mids have played themselves into a great position. It's hard to overstate how big of an opportunity they have this week. Right now, there's no pressure. At 2-1, all the team's goals would still be on the table. But a win over Memphis— the favorite to win the conference— would not only make the Mids a contender for the AAC championship, but by extension, it would turn them into a Playoff contender.
Oh, I can already hear the howling as I type this. Why would you say that? Don't miss the point. Everyone knows not to get ahead of themselves, but it's never too early to get excited to play in meaningful games. Games like this were a big reason why Navy joined the American. Players want to play in games that matter to the big picture. Recruits want to go where they happen. It's been too long since we've had one in Annapolis, and everyone should embrace the moment.
Feels like old times. Enjoy it.
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