One quirk of the 2023 American Athletic Conference football season was a trio of teams with dreadful offenses but standout defenses. Charlotte was third in the conference in pass defense but third from the bottom in total offense. Navy had the second-worst offense in the conference, but their defense had three shutouts and trailed only Tulane in turnovers forced. ECU had the starkest contrast. They were last in the league in total offense and ranked 130th nationally. Defensively, though, they were tied for second in the AAC in total defense and tied with Navy for third in scoring defense. Not surprisingly, the meetings between these three teams weren't exactly the greatest shows on turf, with scores of 10-0, 14-0, and 10-7.
One year later, a lot has changed. Charlotte's roster has been overhauled. Navy and ECU hired new offensive coordinators, with the Pirates naming Ole Miss Co-OC and tight ends coach John David Baker as their new play caller. The results have been mixed, although one thing is certain: the games between these teams have looked like a different sport. Charlotte beat ECU 55-24. Navy beat Charlotte 51-17. When Navy heads to Greenville on Friday to face ECU, we'll see if the third game of this round-robin will be just as bonkers.
"Bonkers" might also be a good way to describe ECU's season overall. After starting 2-0, the Pirates lost four of their next five, leading to the dismissal of head coach Mike Houston. However, since defensive coordinator Blake Harrell took over as interim head coach (now permanent), ECU has been on a tear. They've won four in a row and now sit at 7-4. Their 5-2 conference record is tied with Navy and preseason favorite Memphis. The team that fired its coach in the middle of the year still has a shot at its first nine-win season since 2013. It seems almost ridiculous. Was the school too quick to pull the trigger on Houston if the team he built was showing clear signs of progress?
Maybe. One wonders if Houston would still be around if the schedule were arranged differently. ECU's four-game winning streak didn't come against a murderer's row; Temple, Florida Atlantic, Tulsa, and North Texas are a combined 5-23 in AAC play, with three firing their own head coaches. If ECU had started the conference schedule with these guys, would Houston still be coaching? I don't know. Part of the problem with ECU's start wasn't just the losses; it was who they lost to. Losing to Charlotte and Appalachian State is unacceptable in Greenville, where athletics has long been seen as the ticket to raise the school's in-state profile. They spent 20 years as an independent, playing teams like NC State, Virginia Tech, South Carolina, West Virginia, and Miami. That's what they aspire to be, and they expect the results to match, especially against in-state opponents.
It's an interesting what-if, but what's done is done. All that matters now for Navy is that they are about to face a resurgent team getting an added motivational boost from players who just got their choice for their new head coach.
The head coach may not be ECU's most impactful change this season, anyway. Transfer quarterbacks Jake Garcia (Missouri) and Katin Houser (Michigan State) fought for the starting job before the season, with the former winning out. But the team switched to Houser after the loss to Charlotte, and suddenly, it became a whole new world. In their first five FBS games, ECU averaged 361 total yards. Since Houser took over the starting job, they've averaged 508. They averaged 23.4 points in their first five FBS games. In their last five, they've averaged 42.2.
Perhaps the most remarkable thing about Houser's performance is how it has opened up the offense for everyone. Running back Rahjai Harris has almost as many rushing yards in his last four games (427) as in his first seven (431). He has averaged 7 yards per carry in those games, up from 3.95. Wide receiver Anthony Smith has three 100-yard receiving games, all coming in the last four games. Fellow wideout Chase Sowell has averaged more than 30 yards per reception in that same span. Eight different players have caught at least 13 passes, led by receiver Winston Wright Jr. with 45. With Sowell and Wright out last week against North Texas, freshman Yannick Smith stepped up with seven catches for 112 yards and a touchdown.
In some ways, ECU's offense is similar to USF's. Both teams try to play at a blistering pace; ECU's 21.7 seconds per play is fourth in the country. Both teams spread defenses out from sideline to sideline, regularly lining receivers up outside the numbers. Both these things are done to simplify defenses. However, while the injury to Byrum Brown hampers USF's downfield passing, ECU has no such problem. In November, the Pirates are tied with Ole Miss for the most plays of 20+ yards per game in the country (8.7). The USF game was the best performance of the year for the Navy defense, partly because they were willing to focus on the run in Brown's absence. They won't have that luxury on Friday.
But that doesn't mean the Pirates are invincible. ECU's scheme results in a lot of isolated matchups in the secondary, testing the defense's coverage and open-field tackling. But the offense becomes much less efficient when the field is compressed, and those matchups aren't quite so isolated. Over the last month, ECU is 99th in the country in red zone scoring. Keep in mind, this is the best stretch of football the Pirates have had all year. For context, Navy is 92nd in that same time frame-- their worst stretch. "Bend but don't break" might not be the worst approach in a game like this.
Houser also hasn't been immune to mistakes. ECU isn't a dink-and-dunk offense; Houser's 9.1 yards per passing attempt would be 8th in the country if he had enough attempts to qualify. But along with the downfield passing has come interceptions. Houser has eight despite only starting five games. Half of those INTs have come on either third and long or fourth down. Interestingly, Houser hasn't seen much pressure; ECU's offensive line has only given up five sacks during their winning streak. Houser's mistakes have, for the most part, been his own.
ECU is most dangerous when they have the threat of the run and the deep ball at the same time. When defenses have to choose between one or the other, the Pirates are a threat to score from anywhere on the field. But when the threat of the deep ball goes away in the red zone, their efficiency goes down. And when the threat of the run isn't as great on third and long, they're prone to mistakes. I think that leaves Navy with two options. They could take the same approach they did against USF, focusing on the run and leaving the secondary with a lot of man coverage in an attempt to win on first and second down. Or they could play bend-but-don't-break and make their stand in the red zone. Their choice may be re-evaluated depending on how well the Navy offense plays.
Of course, that's a situation that raises plenty of its own questions, with the first being whether Blake Horvath will be healthy enough to play. And if he is healthy enough to play, will he be healthy enough to throw? Horvath's ribs have made it difficult for him to throw without pain, and he hasn't been nearly as accurate in recent weeks as he was in the first half of the season. Is it better to start Braxton Woodson or Horvath without his full arsenal? The answer is crucial, because Navy will need as many weapons as possible against a reimagined ECU defense.
We hear Brian Newberry talk a lot about "complimentary football." It means more than just, "The offense should be good, and the defense should also be good." It means that one unit should take the other's playing style into account when devising the best team approach to winning. Along those lines, while ECU's defense was outstanding a year ago, their new offense has forced them to rethink how they play defense. And it's working.
Last year, Harrell's group was third in the conference in both scoring defense and total defense. That's an impressive feat, considering how inept ECU's offense was. The defense was on the field a lot; ECU was 104th in the country in opponent time of possession. Likely knowing that their offense wouldn't be sustaining many drives, they didn't take many chances. The Pirates were 86th nationally in turnovers forced and 118th in sacks.
With the new offense, though, Harrell's goals are different. Now, they take more risks to get the big, drive-killing play. If they get burned, they shake it off and move on. The team's overall philosophy is that they believe their offense can win a shootout against anyone, so they want the ball in their hands as much as possible. They don't fear giving up the occasional big play because they're confident their offense will have even more. As a result, the overall numbers don't look as good, partly because no defense in the country lines up for more plays. But that doesn't mean they're any less effective. They're 14th in the country in turnovers and 10th in tackles for loss. They're also in the top 30 in red zone defense. This week, the question is how this new aggression translates to an already effective option defense.
Last year, ECU limited the Mids to 174 rushing yards. They didn't just roll out one stunt against the option and wait for Navy to adjust to it before trying something else. They incorporated two or three into the game plan and changed them almost every play. By the time Navy adjusted to one, they had moved on to another. Playcalling became a guessing game. Typically, when you find something that works, you want to run it until the defense stops it. Against ECU, that wasn't possible.
Here's an example of what I mean. Early on, the Mids ran the fullback off tackle on first down for a decent gain. The outside linebacker was left unblocked because he was stepping into the backfield in anticipation of being the pitch key on an option play. The fullback could run right by him.
But ECU didn't have the linebacker step into the backfield on every play. The next time the Mids ran off tackle, the OLB was left unblocked again, but he played the fullback.
Navy then tried to use the slotback to block the OLB. A receiver was brought in motion to block the playside safety, but that left the cornerback unblocked. Ideally, the CB would follow the receiver in case it's a pass play. Instead, the cornerback read the play and made the tackle.
Sometimes the OLB would squat, and the fullback could run past him.
But then sometimes he wouldn't squat, and the Mids were back to square one.
The Mids also tried running off tackle out of different formations. Here, they lined up with two tight ends and motioned a receiver inside to add an extra blocker, but for some reason, nobody blocked the OLB.
Navy had more success when they lined up with one back and one tight end. The first time they lined up this way, the OLB played outside like he expected to be a pitch key.
After that, he went back to playing the fullback.
All of this back-and-forth was just for one play. Now imagine the Mids having to do this for every play they want to run. That's the challenge in front of them this week.
We saw a similar situation in Navy's win over USF. The Bulls mixed their option stunts, and eventually, the Mids stopped playing the guessing game and just ran power in the third quarter. When Army played ECU last month, they also ran right at the defense with power, inside zone, and play action, taking the question of unblocked defenders out of the equation (mostly). And it worked; they went up 31-0 before cruising to a 45-28 win. Their 147 passing yards were their second-highest total of the season. But that's where Navy's quarterback situation comes into play. You don't want to dial up power and play action when your quarterback is nursing a rib injury. On the other hand, if you aren't running as much option, then Braxton Woodson's option reads are less of a factor. For Navy, one wonders if the game plan will factor into the quarterback decision or if the quarterback decision depends on the game plan.
I do think a passing threat is vital for this game, though. Everyone loves 15-play drives, but if the plan is to stay on schedule play after play, that leaves little room for error. One mistake can kill a drive, and the way ECU can score, keeping pace is a must. The Mids have to find ways to pick up chunk plays. The longer the drive, the more likely a mistake will happen at some point.
This is the conference finale for both teams, and while the game won't have title implications, there is a lot at stake. For ECU, it's almost like the first game of next year. They still have a lot to play for. Nine wins would be an unqualified success. But with the interim tag removed from Blake Harrell's job title, the Pirates have newfound stability. Their success in the second half of the season is something to build upon, not a swan song. Meanwhile, Navy wants to recapture some optimism of their own heading into the most important game of the year and playing for a 10-win season. Friday's game may not decide a title, but it will be a defining moment for both teams as they aim to finish strong and set the tone for what's coming.
