One of the strangest quirks of recent Navy history is that they always play well offensively against ECU. The Mids are 8-2 against the Pirates all time, and those wins included games where they scored 76 in 2010, 56 in 2012, and 66 in 2016. Even both losses were 38-35 shootouts. As bad as things were in 2020, Navy still left Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium with a win. This has been the case with good Navy teams and bad Navy teams, home or away, and across four different ECU coaches. For some reason, the option has been Pirate Kryptonite.
That was the case until last season, anyway. In 2022, Navy and ECU needed overtime before the Mids finally prevailed, 23-20. This year, the score might look more like a service academy game. ECU is in the top 25 in both rushing defense and red zone defense. They've given up only 23 points per game, and they're playing their best football of the season. Last week, they held FAU to seven points. The week before that, they held #17 Tulane to 13 points. For a Navy offense that has struggled to move the ball, the Pirates will be a considerable challenge.
Of course, the same could be said for ECU's offense against Navy's defense. It isn't easy to point to any one thing that ECU does well. The Pirates average only 272.9 and 18.1 points per game, among the worst in the country. They are dead last in plays of 20+ yards. Even last week, as they topped FAU 22-7 for their first FBS win of the season, the offense still only managed 235 yards. The Pirates' only touchdown came after a punt block gave them a short field. As frustrating as Navy's offense has been this season, ECU has had it even worse.
Buy why? It was only last year that ECU looked like one of the American's up-and-coming teams. 2022 was their second winning season in a row, capped off with a blowout over media darling Coastal Carolina in the Birmingham Bowl. This year, instead of eight wins, they already have eight losses. How can so much go so wrong so quickly?
In college sports, that usually means graduation losses, and ECU certainly had more than their fair share. First among them is Holton Ahlers, a rare five-year starter at quarterback. He threw for over 13,000 yards and ran over 1,000 yards in his record-breaking career. But it wasn't just Ahlers. ECU also lost 1,500-yard rusher Keaton Mitchell as well as a pair of 1,000-yard rushers in Isaiah Winstead and C.J. Johnson. Any team would struggle to find answers after losing that much production.
So what is left? At quarterback, sophomore Mason Garcia was the starter coming out of fall camp, but junior Alex Flinn has since taken over the job. At 6-5, Flinn has the prototypical quarterback look, although he's had a rough go of things so far. He threw for 246 yards against Rice and 225 yards and two touchdowns against UTSA. He has thrown only four touchdowns against eight interceptions, prompting ECU's coaches to try to help him manage the game with shorter throws. His 5.2 yards per attempt are among the lowest in the nation. His favorite receivers are senior Jaylen Johnson (38 catches, 421 yards) and freshman wide receiver Chase Sowell (36 catches, 452 yards), a transfer from Colorado. Tight end Shane Calhoun, one of the few returning starters, is a top target in the red zone and has two TD catches. Rahjai Harris, who suffered an ACL injury after playing in five games last year, is the top running back.
One key difference between this year and last year for the Pirates is on third down. ECU is similar to Navy in that they are better passers when they throw on their own terms. In obvious passing situations, their efficiency plummets. The same can be said for anyone, but in ECU's case, it's particularly glaring (insert "offense not built for third and long" joke here). On third and 7+ yards last year, ECU was 56-70 for 685 yards, five TDs, and only one INT. This year, they are 31-73 for 323 yards, one TD, and three INTs. ECU had a better conversion rate when passing on third and 7+ yards last year (33%) than they do on all third downs regardless of distance this year (32%). One reason ECU was so effective on offense last year was the ability to extend drives in unfavorable circumstances.
Last year, Navy was able to stop that trend. Their strategy was to stop the run on first and second down before making Ahlers uncomfortable on third and long. That's precisely what happened on the Pirates' first possession:
ECU mixed up their playcalling at times, but at some point in every drive, they would run on first down and get stuffed. To still be able to run effectively on second down, they occasionally turned to draw plays if Navy dropped into coverage. For the most part, though, Navy's plan was effective. Of 26 first down plays, ECU ran the ball 16 times. They averaged only 2.8 yards per carry on those runs. The Mids' success on first down helped them to get off the field on third down. Only three of ECU's 15 third downs were 3rd and four or less. While Ahlers threw for 267 yards in the game, many of those yards didn't do any damage. Even though 157 of those yards came on third downs, many were of the "pick up seven yards on third and nine" variety.
I expect the Mids to take the same approach tomorrow, with one caveat. While ECU hasn't been much of a big-play generator this year, Navy needs to keep it that way. If this is shaping up to be a low-scoring game, Navy can't afford to give up any easy ones.
On the defensive side of the ball, ECU fans might build a statue of defensive coordinator Blake Harrell for exorcising the team's option demons. Navy might have won the game last year, but they only ran for 191 yards. Harrell did a good job mixing up different looks on almost every play, making it difficult for Navy to adjust. For example, let's take a look at the Mids' first drive:
1. On Navy's first play from scrimmage, they ran the slotback off tackle. The playside slotback helped to seal off the inside, while the fullback took the outside linebacker. If the safety hesitated at all, Maquel Haywood could have made one move and been off to the races. But the safety did not hesitate.
2. The Mids took advantage of the aggressive safety on the next play. This time, they ran the fullback. It looked like he was running off tackle, so the safety headed for the C gap. At the last second, though, Daba Fofana bounced outside. The safety was sucked into traffic, which left running room outside.
3. The Mids tried to run the same play on the other side, but this time, the inside linebacker scraped outside to cover the C gap instead of the safety. The scrape left the guard with a bad blocking angle.
4. To counter the scraping linebacker, the Mids went with a heavy formation and gave the ball back to the fullback on a pin and pull. The extra lineman on the play side could block down on the defensive line, giving the fullback a running lane behind the scraping linebacker, who was trapped by the pulling guard.
5. On each of the previous plays, the safeties were lined up directly over the slotbacks. That's relatively close to the middle of the formation, and with the playside safety charging to the line of scrimmage at the snap, it opened up the toss sweep.
6. The Mids then tried to work on the eyes of the inside linebackers. On the next play, they ran a fullback trap. The quarterback faced one way to draw the linebackers while the fullback ran the other way.
7. Finally, they went back to play number 2... Almost. Navy used the same formation with the same slotback motion. After seeing the fullback bounce outside the last time, the safety ran outside to meet him. This time, though, the fullback ran through the C gap instead.
It was back-and-forth like this for the entire game. The Mids moved the ball on that possession, but others didn't go as well. Navy was often fighting the wrong battle; once they adjusted to one thing, ECU had already moved on to something else.
So how does this year's Navy offense plan for this? One way would be to remove the option from the equation, at least to start. By running inside and/or outside zone, for example, blocking assignments become simplified, so there is less risk of running the wrong play against whatever stunt the defense called. It might also make sense to pass more in this game. Last year, Tai Lavatai's arm was the big-play creator that Navy needed. The same opportunities will likely be there again tomorrow. Still, ECU's defense is 18th in the country in tackles for loss per game, averaging nearly 7. You can't afford to have Arline camped out in the pocket too long. It might make sense to see more of the one-man routes we saw against Temple. If the receiver isn't open, Arline can improvise with his legs. Yardage will be hard to come by in this game, so the Mids will need to get it however they can.
To get to .500 with two games left to play would be a real accomplishment for a Navy team that has battled all season. Last week, they caught UAB off guard by running plays they hadn't used all season. That'll be tougher to do against a much better ECU defense. Can they pull it off again?
