Navy entered the 2024 season as an underdog with something to prove. After getting off to a 2-0 start over teams they were favored against, their first major test came against Memphis, the conference favorite and ranked #23 in the Coaches' Poll. The Mids responded with a 56-44 victory that instantly made them a contender for the American Athletic Conference title.
On Saturday, the shoe will be on the other foot. Now it's an underdog Charlotte team that enters the game with a 2-0 conference record. Navy is 5-0, ranked in the AP Poll, and getting national attention. And rather than fighting to make a name for themselves, the Mids will be fighting to keep what they've earned.
Navy head coach Brian Newberry isn't concerned with the backstory. His focus is keeping his team on an even keel and preparing the same way every week.
"I think every week, we're fighting and clawing and scratching for our lives," he said at his weekly press conference. "The ranking's nice, but I don't put a whole lot of stock into that. If anything, it's recognition for our players, what they've done at this point. We've talked about being relevant in the landscape of college football, being in the conversation. And that's great, but it has nothing to do with this game."
I'm not sure that sentiment is shared on the other sideline.
Charlotte head coach Biff Poggi was full of bluster and ambition when he was introduced as the program's head coach at the end of the 2022 season.
"Our goal is very simple," he said at the time. "We want to win the AAC, and we want to win it repeatedly. And we want to get to the College Football Playoff. That's why I left Michigan, and that's what I'm expecting to do here. And you should be asking, 'What's your timetable?' My timetable is now."
That was a bold statement from someone who inherited a 3-9 team, and after another three-win campaign of his own, Poggi expressed regret at making it. But while he has a new respect for the process of building a winner, his ambition hasn't changed. And what better way to jumpstart that process than by getting a win over a ranked conference team on the road? The 49ers would have to be considered dark-horse AAC contenders if they come out on top against an undefeated, top-25 team. At the very least, a bowl game would be within reach.
Maybe that's a bit over the top. A quick look at the stat sheet suggests a Charlotte win is unlikely. The 49ers are ranked 100th in scoring offense and 102nd in total offense. Defensively, it looks even worse: they are 111th in scoring defense and 117th in total defense. But the story with Charlotte isn't the stats; it's the trend.
One of the first things Poggi did when he arrived on campus last year was overhaul the roster. He brought in a staggering 65 transfers, including several who played for him in high school. In interviews before the season, Poggi suggested that there may have been a rift in the locker room between his St. Frances players and those who hadn't played for him before. Most of those St. Frances players are gone now, and while that helps with locker room unity, it's almost like starting from scratch. Charlotte is tied with Colorado for most transfers in the country with 44. Between transfers and recruits, Charlotte has 71 newcomers on the roster, the third most in the country.
We've talked a lot here about how difficult it can be to build team cohesion with a transfer-heavy team. It can also be challenging for the coaches to figure out who to play and how to play them. Injuries have compounded that problem. Before Charlotte's season opener against JMU, it was revealed that eight starters would miss the game due to injuries in camp. The 49ers have started three quarterbacks and three running backs in 2024. They have had five different sets of defensive line starters in six games. With all the upheaval, it's fair to say that the season statistics should be taken with a grain of salt. The real Charlotte team may be yet to stand up.
Indeed, Poggi announced this week that his team is healthy ("totally full go") and shouldn't be missing any starters against Navy. That makes for an interesting matchup on Saturday because as the team has gotten healthier over the last two weeks, they have played their best football in a long time.
It didn't look like that would be the case when the Niners faced Rice. They trailed 10-0 at halftime after producing only 66 yards of offense, but a quarterback change spurred a comeback. Trexler Ivey, who played against Navy last year, was replaced by Deshawn Purdie. The freshman went 10-15 for 183 yards, including two beautiful, long touchdown passes to receiver O'Mega Blake. Charlotte scored 21 points in the half and held on for a 21-20 win after Rice missed a field goal as time expired.
There was no late-game drama required two weeks ago. The Niners faced an ECU team that came to Charlotte with a 3-2 record and their own hopes for a rebound season. Instead, the Pirates were handed a 55-24 beatdown. Purdie got the start again, and the offense exploded for 513 yards. It was the second-highest margin of victory in a conference game in the program's short history and only the third time they've topped 50 points.
While Purdie is the hot hand, Poggi didn't commit to a starting quarterback in his press conference. Florida transfer Max Brown started the first two games of the season but went down with an injury against UNC and hasn't played since. He is healthy and available to start. While Brown's numbers in his two appearances are modest-- he completed 52.6 percent of his throws with one touchdown and two interceptions-- that was with a supporting cast that wasn't 100 percent. Sticking with Purdie would seem logical, but it must be tempting to see what the more experienced Brown is capable of when the team is at full strength. Either way, Navy will have to be prepared for both, which makes their job that much harder this week.
Or does it? Maybe it doesn't matter who Charlotte starts at quarterback. Purdie was 13-22 for 206 yards against ECU, and while that included some impressive throws, it wasn't an atypical passing performance for the 49ers this year. What was extraordinary was how well the offense ran the ball. Charlotte ran for 311 yards-- their most since 2019-- against an ECU defense that was giving up only 116 yards per game on the ground and 2.8 yards per carry. To put that into context, Charlotte ran for 13 yards against Gardner-Webb and only had 397 for the entire season before that game. Is the Charlotte offense a rushing juggernaut when they're at full strength? Well, maybe.
As impressive as the Niners were running the ball-- and don't get me wrong, it was impressive-- I don't think the total yardage tells the whole story of the game. Of Charlotte's 311 yards, 242 came on only eight plays, including touchdown runs of 62 and 65 yards. On the one hand, demonstrating the ability to generate big plays is a good thing. On the other hand, it meant the rest of the running game consisted of 43 carries for 69 yards (1.6 YPC). Despite the numbers, there were a lot of runs in that game that went nowhere. It's never as good or as bad as it seems, and in Charlotte's case, lapses in ECU's defense had a lot to do with their spectacular numbers.
So maybe Charlotte's offense isn't the second coming of 1995 Nebraska, but that doesn't mean the improvement we saw against ECU wasn't real. Perhaps a winning identity has emerged: an offense committed to the run that throws well enough to keep the chains moving until one of their talented running backs breaks loose. That's something you can get behind.
It could also give the Mids trouble if they aren't careful. While Navy's defense is usually strong against the run, this year has been more of a mixed bag. In fairness, their worst performances have come against Memphis and UAB, where their primary focus was coverage. Charlotte, for lack of a better term, will be a more normal Navy game plan. Still, the nature of what Charlotte does offensively will test the Mids with things they've been shaky with at times this season.
Charlotte likes to use a lot of shifting before the snap. It's nothing you won't see from other teams, but it caused ECU enough trouble for some reason that they would occasionally mix up assignments and leave gaps uncovered. Charlotte's running backs are also good at changing direction, which allowed them to make the most of those occasions.
I think the tight end was holding on that first play, but you rate what you skate. Newberry has talked about the importance of block destruction, and if the Mids want to avoid ECU's fate, they will have to make a point of it on Saturday.
There were times against Memphis and UAB where it appeared Navy's gap discipline wasn't what it should be. It was terrific against Air Force, but that offense is a different animal. Indeed, sometimes it can be challenging to transition from defending the option to a more "normal" offense, leading to other mistakes. In that sense, coming off a bye week should benefit the Mids.
One reason Navy is usually good against the run is that they confuse offenses by having unconventional gap assignments. An offensive lineman might block the defender in front of him only to find someone else was covering that gap and making the tackle. In last year's game, Charlotte noticed this sometimes left the Mids vulnerable on the backside of zone runs. That's where they had the most success.
In the second half, Navy adjusted to those successful backside runs by firing the corners.
That was all it took. Charlotte had 103 rushing yards in the first half. They finished with 123.
When you blitz the cornerback, you have to roll a safety over to cover the receiver. One way to beat the blitz is to throw to the receiver on the sideline faster than the safety can get to him. Last year, Ivey couldn't make Navy pay. But when ECU blitzed the cornerback, Purdie showed he could.
After running the ball 51 times against ECU and having their best game of the season, it's safe to say that Charlotte will look to run the ball again, which means more of these backside runs. Fortunately, the Mids have gotten physical play out of their cornerbacks. Dashaun Peele was excellent in run support in last year's game and did it again against Air Force. But it would be better if his services were unnecessary. Unlike last year, Charlotte has shown big-play potential in the passing game. They have two receivers-- Blake and fellow junior Jairus Mack-- who average more than 19 yards per catch. The less the secondary has to be involved in run support, the better.
That makes Navy's front seven one of the keys to this game. Charlotte's offensive line has been shaky. They're 109th in the nation in sacks allowed, giving up 2.8 per game. They're 123rd in tackles for loss allowed. Navy is averaging more than two sacks per game, which is somewhat impressive considering that their last game was against an option team, and they didn't even try to come after the quarterback against Memphis. If the Mids can be disruptive without getting the secondary involved, it will go a long way toward reducing the big-play threat.
Big plays might also be the story when Navy has the ball. Charlotte has allowed more plays of 30+ yards (23) than any other team in the country. Navy's offense averages 3.2 plays of 30+ yards per game, which is the 12th most. Their 2.4 plays per game of 40+ yards is tops in the nation. While most of the long plays the Niners have given up have come through the air, Navy's revamped passing game has been one of the team's strengths this year. Indeed, Navy's ability to generate two big plays decided last year's game.
Charlotte is a base 4-2-5 defense, but against Navy last year, they lined up in a 4-4 with three deep safeties. It's a common defense against the Mids and was used by several teams. The one wrinkle Charlotte added was that they usually-- but not always-- scraped the playside ILB. We can see that on the first play Navy ran from scrimmage, the power read. Tai Lavatai missed the read, but you can see that the linebacker is scraping outside:
Navy was able to generate two long scoring plays against this. The 49ers were playing with three defensive backs all afternoon, so four verticals was a logical call. Here, Braxton Woodson made a pinpoint throw to Eli Heidenreich, but I think Anton Hall was more open, not that it mattered in the end.
Navy also ran the midline option. The midline has traditionally been Navy's go-to play against a scraping linebacker, especially with an even front. That's even more true against slanting defensive tackles. Alex Tecza's touchdown was a midline triple option. The defensive end is the pitch key, and the defensive tackle is the dive key. Woodson made the correct read, and when the ILB scraped, it gave Tecza a clear path to the third level. The playside tackle did a fantastic job getting to the safety, which was the last obstacle before reaching the end zone.
But that was all the Mids could do. Some of the issues were because Lavatai was injured on the first series, leaving the freshman Woodson to take most of the snaps. Some problems were rooted in the overall offense and don't apply to this year's team. But some of Navy's problems were because Charlotte's defensive line was dominating against a battered offensive line.
The defensive ends were particularly athletic. One of the first offensive adjustments Navy made was to run a double option, pitching off of the playside DE and using the fullback to block the scraping linebacker. The first time they tried it, the backside DE ran all the way to the other sideline to make the tackle. The next time, the pitch key was able to run to the ball even after it was pitched.
While Charlotte only has two starters back from last year's defense, the defensive line is still a concern for Navy. Stone Handy is a 6-5, 240-pound transfer from Indiana who started his career at Auburn. Against ECU, he caught a tipped ball in the backfield and returned it 53 yards for a touchdown. Not bad for a defensive end. Charlotte is athletic enough to chase the ball carrier down from behind if Navy's execution is slow. The Mids can't hesitate when the ball is in the backfield.
It will be interesting to see how the Niners line up. They played well against Navy last year, but I don't think they'll want to use too much of that game plan. This is a pick-your-poison situation for the Charlotte defense. While Poggi still views Navy as a triple option team, he acknowledged that the Mids are much better at throwing the ball. I don't think defensive coordinator Ryan Osborn will want to be as aggressive up front while leaving only three defenders in the secondary, but he may have to. Charlotte's defense is giving up 5.73 yards per carry against FBS competition, which is 122nd nationally. Navy averages 6.71 yards per carry vs. the FBS, which is third in the country. If the Charlotte front seven doesn't get help, they'll have a tough time stopping the run.
On paper, this is a good matchup for Navy. The Mids' strengths align well with the Niners' weaknesses, or at least, I think they do. With Charlotte, you can't be too sure. The 49ers have dealt with so much lineup roulette this season that it's difficult to predict what they will look like now that they're at full strength. Now they are healthy, and they have something to play for. That makes this a dangerous game, not that there's any other kind for the Mids.
One of the familiar tropes with many fans, especially Navy fans, is that they don't like it when their team is favored. They like being the underdog. They don't want the team to believe the hype. That's great and all, but if you want your team to actually be good, you need to get used to them being favored. Navy has graduated from the ranks of the scrappy underdog and is now a ranked favorite. They'll be getting every team's best shot, and if they want to stay on the mountaintop, they'll have to respond in kind.
Join the conversation! Talk about this and other topics on TheMidReport's forums!
