If I'm being honest, my enthusiasm for college sports, even college football, isn't what it used to be. That's because college sports aren't what they used to be and never will be again. One can argue if it's all for the better or worse, although you can probably tell where I stand. None of it is good for Navy, that's for sure. Eventually, the Big Ten and SEC will absorb whoever they want and turn the top tier of college football into a lower-tier professional league that's "college" in name only. One can't help but feel helpless as the gong show unfolds.

Still, there is one place of refuge from the madness: the games themselves. For four hours on Saturday, we can forget about paying players and the politics of conference realignment. We can take solace in the age-old tradition of telling coaches to pass more and listening to commentators say that Navy isn't built for third and long. The world's troubles fade away, and we instead worry about the troubles on the field—for fun.

Yay football!

And so we get our next dose of sweet relief on Saturday, when Navy will host Bucknell to open their 144th season on the gridiron. For the Mids, it will be their first step into the unknown as they unveil a new offense that includes option plays but isn't based on the spread option that brought them so much success.

But unknowns aren't necessarily a bad thing.

Navy is coming off of a historically bad season on offense after averaging only 194 rushing yards and 17.7 points per game. The Mids went three-and-out at an alarming rate and were 130th in the country in third-down conversions. But they were also surprisingly explosive at times and were among the country's leaders in touchdown drives of one minute or less. How is this possible? I think it points to a scheme problem. When the opportunities for big plays presented themselves, the Mids had the talent to take advantage. The problem is that the scheme didn't create enough of those opportunities and lacked the consistency to sustain drives. If Navy wasn't scoring on an explosive play, they weren't scoring. But if the scheme is fixed, then what?

This year, the unknown isn't frightening. It's intriguing. It's about imagining what might be possible. Navy's offensive line is healthy again after being held together with duct tape last year. The quarterback situation is stable. Blake Horvath won the starting job in the spring after impressing the coaches with his grasp of the offense. Meanwhile, if Braxton Woodson has to step onto the field, he will do so not as an emergency fourth-string pressed into service but as someone who has been pushing the starter and has a full spring and fall camp full of reps. Almost all of the top playmakers from last year-- Alex Tecza, Daba Fofana, Eli Heidenreich, and Brandon Chatman-- are back. The wide receivers are raw, but they have the speed to challenge any secondary in the conference.

That's not to say that everything is perfect. It would take a real Pollyanna to argue all is well with an offense that struggled so much a year ago. But that's the thing; they don't have to be perfect. They just have to be better. Navy was a .500 team in the conference last year and 5-7 overall, even with an offense at the bottom of the national rankings. If they were average-- shoot, even a little below average-- Navy would have been a bowl team. While there are new faces for the Midshipmen on defense, they have been consistent enough each year under Brian Newberry and PJ Volker to expect more of the same. If the offense can pull themselves out of the basement, this team can more than achieve its goals.

Offensive coordinator Drew Cronic alluded to this in his introductory press conference.

"I don't think it's going to take a lot," he said. "When you look at football, if you can score one more touchdown and not give up one more touchdown each game, you all of a sudden have a ten or 14-point swing. Now you're winning nine, ten games."

Of Navy's seven losses in 2023, five were 14 points or less. Two were by less than a touchdown. It wouldn't take much to tip the scales in Navy's favor. An offense that can pick up first downs will hold onto the ball longer and keep opposing offenses off the field and, by extension, out of the end zone. That ten or 14-point swing isn't unrealistic.

As exciting as Navy's potential is, though, it all has to be proven on the field. Navy's first opportunity to show off its new look comes against Bucknell, and no offense to the Bison, but if you have to work out the bugs in a new offense, it's probably better to do it against them than against Notre Dame last year.

The Bison are coming off of a rough campaign after finishing 1-5 in a lackluster Patriot League and 4-7 overall. Still, they were playing better football by the end of the season. They beat Colgate, which finished in the top half of the conference. They had two close losses to Fordham and Georgetown, with the latter being an overtime heartbreaker. But they capped the season with a win over Marist. While Bucknell's defense was a lackluster 107th in FCS (431 ypg), the offense was a respectable 48th, averaging 370 ypg. Is that momentum that the team can build on in 2024?

Well, maybe. The new normal for teams not at the top of the college football food chain is for top players to become transfer targets, and Bucknell is no exception. The Bison lost leading rusher Coleman Bennett to Rice. Cornerback Ethan Robinson, who led the team with three interceptions, is now at Minnesota after gathering offers from Memphis, Arizona State, Pitt, and Auburn, among others. Still, some key pieces are returning. The interior of the offensive line should be a strength of the team, with 45 career starts from guard to guard. At wide receiver, Nate Anderson transferred in from Western Michigan. Duke transfer Eric Weatherly led the team with seven touchdowns last year. Most importantly, quarterback Ralph Rucker IV, who set the school record for passing yards last year while tying the record for TD passes, is back under center.

Still, while Bucknell will probably set school records on offense again in 2024, Navy should win this game comfortably. The Mids have defeated their last four Patriot League opponents by an average score of 49-14. But that doesn't mean there aren't things to watch for on Saturday.

Style points don't matter, but they do in this game. The Mids cruised to a 51-21 victory against Lehigh in 2018, but there were signs that not all was well. The Mountain Hawks averaged 6.2 yards per carry. Malcolm Perry completed only two of nine passes and threw an interception. Navy committed eight penalties. The problems from that game persisted the rest of the season, and other teams were able to make Navy pay for them. It was a similar story last year against Wagner (not a Patriot League team, but comparable). Navy won 24-0, but the offense's struggles in that game were a sign of things to come. Blowing out Bucknell won't prove that Navy has solved their problems, but playing poorly could indicate that they haven't. There are bound to be some mistakes in the first game of a new offense, but if Navy can pick up first downs, sustain drives, and avoid turnovers, that will be an excellent first step.

It will also be interesting to see how Bucknell lines up against the new Navy offense. In the spring, I asked head coach Brian Newberry if practicing against his new offense would affect preparations against the other service academies. He said it wouldn't; the defense's option package is more or less the same as they use against the Wing-T. Will Bucknell take the same approach? Will they have studied Mercer's offense from the last two years and prepared for that instead? Or maybe they looked at Furman's 2017 film. It might be a preview of how future Navy opponents will line up against the new offense. It also means that the Mids have to be ready for almost anything.

Navy's defense will also face a test. Bucknell's offense operates under two fundamental principles. First, they spread the defense out. They will almost always line receivers up on or outside the numbers, sometimes even stacking them in pairs over the numbers. Second, they get the ball out of the quarterback's hands quickly. The alignment creates running lanes and gives receivers room to operate. Getting the ball out of the backfield helps the offensive line and draws in the secondary, setting up play action. Offenses that spread the field force the defense to make tackles in space, and while I don't think this should be a problem for an experienced Navy defense, they have had early-season difficulties with this in the past. Also, one of their worst games last year was against Temple. While the Owls ran a different offense, it was still based on quickly getting the ball out of the quarterback's hands. Navy opted to bring pressure, but that left fewer defenders in coverage since pass rushers never got to the quarterback quickly enough. While "bend don't break" is anathema to the Navy defense these days, it might not be the worst approach here.

I also expect Navy's offense to be conservative in this game. Newberry denied that anything would be off the table, but I can't imagine he wants to tip his hand any sooner than he has to. And if he has to, that's a whole other problem.

The schedule will only get more difficult after tomorrow. If the record is going to change, the Mids have to show that their old habits have, too. It's a great time for a good first impression.

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