Air Force has had a very successful stretch over the last three years. From 2021-2023, they won 29 games, including a bowl win each season. In 2022, running back Brad Roberts was named the Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year, becoming only the third Air Force player in league history to earn POY honors. The Falcons led the nation in rushing offense in 2021 and 2022 and finished second in 2023. But the key to their success wasn’t running backs like Roberts, nor was it one of their productive quarterbacks or hard-nosed fullbacks. Instead, it was a position not listed on the roster: the turnback.
Because the COVID pandemic upended the 2020 college football season, the NCAA didn’t count it against players’ eligibility clocks. In effect, everyone got a redshirt. In theory, that wouldn’t have done much good for the service academies since all students are expected to graduate in four years except in rare cases.
Air Force, however, saw an opportunity. The school has a policy that allows cadets to disenroll for a semester to address a personal hardship. For example, if a cadet had a serious medical issue, they could seek treatment and recuperate at home. If there was an emergency family situation— maybe a parent took ill, for example— the cadet wouldn’t be forced to choose between their family or future. The football program used this policy— or abused it— to send football players home en masse during the pandemic. Almost half of every class left Colorado Springs for a semester. They made up that semester by adding it to what would have been their last semester had they stayed. Instead of graduating in May, they graduated the following December. That semester just happened to be during football season, and thanks to the NCAA, all those “turnbacks” still had eligibility.
Head coach Troy Calhoun has long been a proponent for allowing redshirts at the Air Force Academy, and for three seasons, he got his wish. These were the most experienced service academy teams in modern college football history, which gave the Falcons the chance to do something unprecedented. Air Force is almost always a good team; from Calhoun’s first season in 2007 until 2019, they averaged 7.5 wins per year. But while they had two or three standout seasons in that span, they never played for a conference championship. They came close in 2019; a September loss to Boise State was their only blemish in the Mountain West. But with the added experience of de facto redshirts, perhaps they could finally get over the hump and maybe even contend for the Group of Five’s automatic New Year’s Six bowl berth.
It didn't happen. In 2021, the Falcons had two conference losses. In 2022, they had three. Last year, Air Force appeared to finally be on their way to achieving the dream after an 8-0 start. Then they lost four straight to end the regular season. Not only did Calhoun's' team not win the Mountain West, but they only won one Commander-in-Chief's Trophy in those three seasons.
One can debate whether using the turnback policy to stack football rosters was appropriate, although you probably can guess where I come down on the issue. But now there are other questions that should be asked: Was it even worth it? Was delaying graduation for dozens of cadets and gaming the system worth two Armed Forces Bowls and a First Responders Bowl? Were these outcomes not within reach for normal, redshirt-free Air Force teams? It's a question some within the program have to be asking, because now the Falcons are paying the piper.
Air Force is the least experienced team in the country. They had to replace all five starters on the offensive line and every starter in their offensive backfield. Five of their top seven rushers from last year are gone, including their top three. Defensively, they lost their top six tacklers. The Falcons have 26 players this year who have made their first career start, which is the most in the country by a wide margin. They have had a different starting five on the offensive line three times in four games.
Air Force’s lack of experience isn’t news; everyone knew that would be the case this year. It’s normal to have at least some turnover at a service academy. Perhaps that is why nobody seemed worried in the preseason. Air Force was picked to finish fourth in the Mountain West’s preseason media poll. They even picked up some top-25 votes. If you read any season previews about them, they all said the same thing. Yeah, they lost a lot, but they’re a machine. They have a system. They’re all set to have another typical Air Force season where they win seven or eight games and play in the Arizona Bowl or something.
Only that is not what has happened. Air Force will enter Saturday’s game against Navy with a 1-3 record, fresh off a loss to previously winless Wyoming (who lost to Idaho). Their lone win came in their opener over Merrimack by a modest 21-6 score. The Falcons had only 237 total yards against a lower-level FCS opponent, and things haven’t gotten much better since then. Air Force is 131st in the country in scoring offense, averaging a mere 12.5 points per game. They are 131st in total offense with 243 yards per game. For comparison’s sake, last year’s much-maligned Navy offense averaged 300 yards per game. Air Force used to be automatic on third down, staying on schedule and converting on third and short. They were 15th in third-down conversions in 2023. They are 111th today. In four games, they’ve only been inside their opponents’ 20-yard line nine times. That wouldn’t be a problem if Air Force was generating big plays, but they aren’t; they are dead last in the nation in plays of 10+ yards.
How could so many people have been so wrong? The service academies indeed have a system, but people don’t understand what that system is. They think it’s about the offense, but it’s really about player development. The real “system” is how players are drilled on the same plays over four years. By the time they are seniors, those players have a surgeon’s proficiency. They’re “football fast.” They know where to go on every play and how to get there quickly. The juniors behind them are almost as good, so there isn’t much dropoff if someone gets hurt. One coach described it to me as “priming the pump.” The more reps they get, the more the pressure builds until they’re ready for action.
Air Force’s turnbacks changed that system. Holding onto players for an extra year had obvious benefits in the short term, but now that Air Force is back to normal, the players left behind aren’t as prepared. Having fifth-year players on top of the food chain for three years changed the equation. The number of reps in practice didn’t increase, just the number of players. There were fewer reps available for those who weren’t on top of the depth chart, so now that they’re in the starting lineup, those players haven’t taken as many snaps. Put another way, instead of being fourth-year players in a four-year system, today’s seniors are fourth-year players in a five-year system, with the same effect down the line. Compounding the problem for Air Force is that their two-deep on offense has 17 players who are juniors or younger.
So, while Navy has spent the last three years facing the most experienced Air Force teams in history, this year, they'll be facing one of the least experienced. On the surface, that should be a good thing. After all, when the roles were reversed, Navy still kept it close. One would think that means big things when the Mids have the upper hand, right? Not so fast. Air Force was 8-0 and being discussed as a Fiesta Bowl pick last year when they lost to a 2-6 Army team coming off of two shutouts and a loss to UMass. Navy kept it close the last two years because that's how these games often are.
It's a cliche at this point to say that, but it's true. And for all of Air Force's offensive struggles, their defense hasn't been that bad, even if they aren't playing to their usual standard. They're giving up 21 points per game, which makes them a top-50 unit in that category. They held the high-flying San Jose State offense to 17 points. They're tied with Navy for the nation's lead in forced fumbles and in the top 50 in third-down defense. Air Force's offense is usually a big contributor to their defensive success by holding onto the ball and limiting the number of possessions in the game. That isn't happening this year, which is probably making the defense's numbers look worse than they really are.
In fact, Air Force's defense has looked better than Navy's in a lot of ways, including on the stat sheet. Air Force is 57th in rushing offense, which is catastrophic for a triple option team. They've only reached 190 yards on the ground twice. On the other hand, Navy has only stopped teams from going over the 190-yard mark twice. Air Force's rushing offense has been their best in their last two games, while Navy's run defense has been their worst. If you're an Air Force fan looking for a reason to be optimistic, that's a good place to start.
But, like Air Force, Navy's early-season numbers are also misleading. Against Memphis and UAB, the Mids were content to sit back in zone coverage and prevent the big play. If those teams wanted to run the ball, defensive coordinator P.J. Volker wasn't going to try too hard to stop it. These were atypical Navy game plans. You get a good sense of this by looking at red zone defense. The Mids are 11th in the country at keeping opponents from scoring after they reach the red zone. Once teams get to the 20-yard line, the threat of the deep ball goes away. That allows Navy to play more like themselves, and they've excelled.
That could be a key to this game, because when first downs are difficult to come by, the winner is often determined by who can generate a big play. In that, Navy has a clear advantage. The Mids are averaging 2.75 plays of 40 or more yards per game, which is the most in the country. Air Force, meanwhile, has yet to hit a single 40-yard gain this season. It's a hard ask of the Air Force offense to finally put it all together against one of the two teams that always defends them the best. While they have shown signs of progress— Cade Harris had 100 receiving yards last week— it's a far cry from Navy, who has had six different players with a play of 45+ yards from scrimmage.
Navy may have an edge when it comes to scheme, too. The reason why it has historically been so difficult for these teams to move the ball against each other is that both defenses have a keen sense of self-awareness regarding the option. They know what look they're presenting to the other team. They know the offense's rules against that look, so they can anticipate the adjustments the offense will make. The trick for both teams is to do something unexpected, which is where the big plays come from. In the past, Navy has gone so far as to unveil entirely new offenses against Air Force. But Navy has a new offensive coordinator, and while the Mids are still option-heavy, we've already seen instances where the adjustments they've made to option defenses are different from years past. Navy should be able to show Air Force things they haven't seen before, and do it from their base offense. It's a lot easier to execute the things you've been practicing since fall camp than it is some razzle-dazzle you installed this week.
It's early, but Navy has answered every challenge they've faced. They won their opener. They won their first conference game. They beat the conference favorite in a shootout. They won their first road game. But the service academy games are what the program is measured against. The Mids haven't won in Colorado Springs since 2012. For all the talk of Navy being "back," it won't feel the same if they don't leave town with a win. If Air Force deserves any sympathy for the mess they brought upon themselves, it can wait until Sunday. Right now, Navy has a job to do.
Join the conversation! Talk about this and other topics on TheMidReport's forums!
