Over/Under

DraftKings Sportsbook has set the over/unders for win totals for the upcoming college football season. Leading the way for the American Athletic Conference is Cincinnati, at 10 wins. UCF (9.5), Memphis (8.5), and Houston (8) are close behind. Temple, at 2.5 wins, brings up the rear. Navy isn't much better; DraftKings has set their over/under for wins at 3.5.

The Mids are coming off of a difficult season, so expectations are understandably low. But should they be? I am not one to bet on sports, but for those so inclined, here are a few reasons to consider both sides. You'll have to decide for yourself which argument is more compelling.

Bet the under

-- History: Navy finished with three wins last year. Their 2019 season was outstanding, but 2018 was another lackluster year, with the Mids finishing at 3-10. Which is the real Navy team: the Liberty Bowl championship campaign or its bookends? Some people might be inclined to believe that 2019 was an aberration.

-- Personnel uncertainty: One common trait of successful option offenses is being strong up the middle: center, quarterback, and fullback. At center, Navy's coaches have raved about both Pierce Banbury and Darrellson Masaniai during spring practice. However, the players lining up behind them are unproven. The Mids were dealt a blow when fullback Jamale Carothers, one of the breakout stars of the 2019 team, was dismissed from the academy. He was the clear starter, and his departure leaves Navy uncomfortably thin at the position. At quarterback, there is no clear starter, with Xavier Arline, Tai Lavatai, and Maasai Maynor all fighting for the top spot on the depth chart. Offensive coordinator Ivin Jasper has expressed confidence in all three and praised them for their progress this spring, but they still have to show what they can do in real games.

--The schedule: Navy's 2021 schedule this season is one of the most difficult in the country. The Mids' usual FCS opener has been replaced by Marshall, who played in the Conference-USA championship game in 2020. Memphis and Houston, regular contenders in the American, remain on the calendar, as does Tulsa, who played for the conference title a year ago. USF and Tulane have been replaced with powerhouse UCF and Cincinnati teams, while Notre Dame returns after a one-year hiatus. Navy might not be favored in a game until facing ECU at home the week before Thanksgiving. Even if Navy is improved this year, the schedule might keep their record from reflecting that improvement.

Bet the over

-- Recognize 2020 for what it was: Most of the skepticism for Navy's 2021 prospects stems from the team playing so poorly in 2020. Last year, however, was unlike any we've ever seen, especially in Annapolis. Navy's 2020 campaign was the football equivalent of a kid standing in front of his class delivering a book report on something he hadn't read. The Mids didn't have a spring practice, and their practices in fall camp were all non-contact. It was done out of an abundance of caution in the beginning stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, but from a football perspective, it left Navy utterly unprepared. There is no way for a team to catch up during the season on fundamentals lost by not having a proper camp. Navy's performance reflected that. Normal preparation is likely to solve many of Navy's problems.

--Potential on defense: While Navy's defense got off to a slow start thanks to their no-contact practices, they ended the season with some of their best performances in recent memory. Part of what was so impressive about those games was who they were against: Memphis, one of the American's top offenses every year, and Tulsa, who went on to play in the conference championship game. The Mids held both teams under 300 yards of total offense and a combined 10-of-31 on third down conversions. With 13 players who started multiple games on defense for Navy returning this year, there is good reason to believe that they will pick up where they left off, especially with a normal spring and fall camp. If they do, it can take pressure off of a Navy offense trying to get back on track.

-- History: After Navy had a disappointing 2018 season, they rebounded with arguably their best campaign in 50 years. It would be unfair to expect the same kind of performance this year, but at the very least it demonstrates that the program has the ability to bounce back. That shouldn't come as a surprise; Navy has been one of the more successful programs in the American Athletic Conference since joining the league in 2015. In six seasons of conference membership, the Mids have won a share of three division titles, with Ken Niumatalolo earning Coach of the Year honors in each of those seasons. Prior to last season's 3-7 record, Navy had averaged eight wins per year as members of the AAC. If Navy's sputtering 2020 was the result of unprecedented circumstances-- and there's every reason to believe that it was-- then it is reasonable to believe that a return to normal preparation will lead to normal results.