Game Week: BYU

Before launching TheMidReport.com, I wrote a Navy sports blog, The Birddog Blog, from 2007-2016. By lucky coincidence, I stumbled upon one of the fascinating stretches of Navy football history. Over those ten years, we saw Paul Johnson's departure and the subsequent hiring of Ken Niumatalolo, the rise of the Army streak and the fall of the Notre Dame streak, Navy football joining what was then the Big East, records shattered by Keenan Reynolds, and a slew of memorable wins. Navy fans are still talking about these things today, yet despite all of that, the post that generated the most traffic on the blog wasn't even about Navy. It was a post about BYU leaving the Mountain West to become independent.

Such is the power of the BYU fanbase, a group as numerous and rabid as any in college football. Indeed, the team's national following is the primary reason why it is on Navy's schedule. When the Mids' annual tilt against Notre Dame was canceled, Chet Gladchuk and Ken Niumatalolo wanted to find a replacement with a national brand of its own. While nothing compares to the Fighting Irish in that regard, a program like BYU makes for one heck of a last-minute substitute.

Of course, BYU was available for a reason. Due to COVID-19-related cancellations, and because of their aforementioned independence, the Cougars had to more or less build their schedule from scratch over the past month. Nine of their 12 originally-scheduled games came against teams from the conferences that have punted on fall football: the Big Ten, Pac 12, Mountain West, and MAC. A tenth game against Missouri was scrapped when the SEC decided to play a conference-only schedule. That left BYU with only Houston and North Alabama on the docket. Since then, they've pieced together an eight-game slate with the additions of Army, Troy, UTSA, Texas State, Western Kentucky, and of course, Navy.

Any football we get this year is a blessing, so it's hard to complain too much about whatever form it takes. Still, losing out on their original schedule is especially unfortunate for the Cougars, who appeared poised to make a splash in 2020. BYU has been a frustratingly inconsistent team over the last few years. Head coach Kalani Sitake led them to a 9-4 record in his debut season, but they fell to 4-9 the following year. Since then, BYU has put together back-to-back 7-6 campaigns. Even within those seasons, the Cougars showed a Jekyll-and-Hyde tendency. Last year, they defeated USC and Tennessee but lost to a USF team that ended up finishing 4-8. This phenomenon-- where a team can seemingly beat or lose to anyone-- can sometimes be indicative of a very talented team that hasn't quite learned how to win yet. With several starters returning to Provo this year, BYU is on the cusp of taking the next step.

One of those players is junior quarterback Zach Wilson, who won a three-way battle for the starting job over sophomores Baylor Romney and Jaren Hall. It's somewhat interesting that there was even a competition at all; Wilson was the starter for all but four games last year, which he missed due to a broken thumb. However, both Hall and Romney led the Cougars to victories in Wilson's absence, including wins over Utah State and Boise State, which earned them each a shot at the starting role. As it turns out, it wasn't that close. Wilson was never 100 percent healthy in 2019 after having shoulder surgery in the offseason. He's healthy now, though, and has proven himself all over again in practice.

That's good news for BYU fans, considering that even a hobbled Wilson was able to throw for 2,382 yards and 11 touchdowns in eight games. The optimism is tempered a bit, however, when you consider that all of his top receiving targets will have to be replaced. Wide receivers Micah Simon, Talon Shumway, and Aleva Hifo combined for 1,660 receiving yards last year, but they all graduated. Tight end Matt Bushman is a legitimate NFL prospect at 6'5" and 240 pounds. He led the Cougars with 688 receiving yards last year, but he suffered an Achilles injury in practice this week and will miss the season. That leaves junior Gunner Romney, with 31 catches in 2019, as the team's top returning receiver. However, I'm not so sure that the relative lack of returning production will be too much of a problem for Coach Sitake's squad.

Without question, the real strength of the BYU offense is on the line of scrimmage. The Cougars had eight players start games along the offensive line last season, and all of them are back in 2020. This group is an absolute tractor factory; none of the linemen on the two-deep depth chart are shorter than 6'4," and all of them weigh at least 300 pounds. Center James Empey and left tackle Brady Christensen are both All-America candidates and have started 26 consecutive games together. When you have an offensive line of this caliber, it makes every other position better. The quarterback has more time to throw, the receivers have more time to get open, and running backs have more space in which to operate.

Facing physically imposing offensive lines is hardly a new thing for the Navy defense; Kansas State wasn't exactly small. What sets BYU apart, though, and what could potentially create a disadvantage for the Mids, is the Cougars' experience. Navy's defense doesn't work by overpowering offenses; it works by confusing them. They want quarterbacks guessing wrong about who's dropping into coverage, and they want offensive linemen confused about who they should block. An offensive line that is used to working together and communicating with each other is more likely to identify and pick up Navy's rushers, leaving Wilson time to look for mismatches in coverage. That's what happened against Notre Dame last season, and to a lesser extent, Houston.

Then again, as good as BYU's offensive line is, they aren't perfect. The Cougars gave up an average of 2.23 sacks per game last year, which is noteworthy for a couple of reasons. On the surface, that number isn't that bad. It's below average, sure, but BYU also threw the ball 36 times per game, which is a fair amount. However, you can't really explain the sack number away by merely attributing it to volume. Last year, three Navy opponents— SMU, ECU, and Tulsa— attempted more passes per game than BYU. Two of them (SMU and ECU) were not only better at protecting the quarterback but by a considerable margin. ECU only gave up 1.42 sacks per game, which was 22nd-best in the country. SMU was even better at 1.31 sacks per game. To put that into perspective, that was the same average as Navy, a team that threw the ball 30 fewer times per game.

That sack average is also surprising considering how in BYU's offense, the ball gets out of the quarterback's hands pretty quickly. The Cougars aren't really a team that drops back and waits for receivers to run downfield. Offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes likes to complete short, high-percentage passes all over the field to stretch defenses from sideline to sideline, mixing in runs to keep defenses honest. The numbers reflect this. BYU had five receivers catch at least 30 passes last year, but none caught more than 51. As a team, they averaged 12 yards per completion, and they didn't deviate too often from that number. They were 15th in the country in plays of 10+ yards but fell to 38th in plays of 20+ yards, and 72nd in plays of 30+ yards. While you wouldn't describe the Cougars as a ball-control offense, they aren't going to waste any downs, either.

On the other side of the ball, nine defenders who started for BYU in the Hawaii Bowl are back this year, and the Cougars get a few players returning from injury as well. Much of the pregame talk has centered around defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga, and for a good reason. At 6'4", 321 pounds, he is a matchup problem for pretty much anyone who lines up in front of him. Linebacker Kavika Fonua was the team's leading tackler last year, with 83. Zayne Anderson is a safety who has also seen time at outside linebacker but has been sidelined with injuries the previous two seasons. When he's been on the field, though, he's been a star, including a 12-tackle performance against Wisconsin in 2018.

BYU has good players returning, but the question in the short term is just how these players will be used against Navy. Defensive coordinator Ilaisa Tuiaki was blunt when asked by reporters about his option experience:

The same goes for everyone on the defensive staff. The only coach who does have experience against the option is Sitake, who was the defensive coordinator at Utah in the Utes’ last two seasons in the Mountain West. Utah was 2-0 against Air Force in those seasons, and Sitake’s defenses held the Falcons to less than 300 rushing yards in both games. Sitake was also on the Utah staff for the Utes’ win over Navy in the 2007 Poinsettia Bowl. Given the last-minute scheduling of this game, it’s unlikely that the BYU staff had the time to craft a whole new option game plan. They will likely borrow heavily from Sitake’s past.

Against Navy, Utah ran a 4-4, with the deep safety and the backside OLB following the slotback’s tail motion. Air Force turned to their passing game in the 2010 contest, with Tim Jefferson throwing for 201 yards. However, the Falcons also committed five turnovers, including two interceptions and two fumbles by receivers after they caught passes.

Regardless of how BYU lines up, the late scheduling of the game did the Cougars no favors. Most teams, knowing that they’ll be facing the Midshipmen the next season, will spend a period or two of practice on their option plan beginning in the spring. Not only did the Cougars not have that opportunity, but it wasn’t until late August that their coaches even knew that they had to come up with an option plan. How good will that plan be? How quickly are they able to prepare their scout team to run the option? How good of a look will their defense get in practice? Through no fault of their own, BYU is at a significant disadvantage.

In a normal year, that would be enough for me to give Navy the edge in this game. However, as we are all acutely aware, this is not a normal year. While there are questions about how prepared BYU will be, the same could be asked of Navy. Head coach Ken Niumatalolo had one priority through fall practice, and that was the safety of his players. The social distancing measures put in place meant that the team didn’t block or hit until this week. It’s an unprecedented situation, and Niumatalolo himself expressed concern about it when talking with the media. Blocking and tackling sleds and dummies is a far cry from live players, and one wonders what kind of sloppiness we’ll see as a result. That’s not a good thing for an offense that depends on precise execution.

With all of the variables involved in this game, it’s impossible to get a sense of how it will unfold. Both teams have reasons to be optimistic, and both teams have concerns. It’s a weird new world for college football, and a lot of the conventional wisdom may not apply. We’ll see who navigated the uncertainty the best on Monday night.