It's another bye week for Navy, and it's a welcome one. I'm probably going to wash my car tomorrow, but first, I'll answer your questions.
Also, remember to donate to Pete and his family. We want him to focus on beating this thing and not worrying about anything else.
Has the magic worn off? Is the "Millennial Wing-T" done and dusted after 7 wins? What does the OC need to do to get more points on the board? Do things need to change or does coach Cronic need to go back to basics?
- Emmett J.
Let's take a trip down memory lane.
In 2004, Navy was a 10-win team. Beat Vanderbilt for the second straight year. Had the 14-minute drive in the Emerald Bowl. But after a 7-1 start, they went to the Superdome and played an absolute dud against Tulane, losing 42-10. They dropped 54 on Rutgers in their next game.
The 2006 team won 9 games. Went to Stanford and beat the Cardinal 37-9. Routed UConn with 605 yards of offense in the Paul Johnson vs. Randy Edsall revenge game. But against #24 Rutgers, quarterback Brian Hampton suffered a terrible leg injury, and Navy lost 34-0 while rushing for only 113 yards.
The 2009 team won 10 games, including Notre Dame and the Texas Bowl against Missouri. They ran for 129 yards in a loss to Pitt. The 2013 team was another 9-game bowl winner. They lost to Western Kentucky 19-7. The 2016 team rolled almost everyone but got to the conference championship game and couldn't move the ball against a basic Temple 6-man front.
My point here is that some of the most celebrated Navy teams of the last 20 years had games where the offense was awful. That doesn't mean you're unjustified in your concern after a string of subpar (or worse) performances. But it should temper the urge to panic.
The problems were different in each of the last four games, so there's no one thing you can point to for the offense to get back on track. The one common thread is that the last four defenses are the best against the option that Navy has faced. That's not excusing the offense's performance, by the way; Army could potentially be the best option defense Navy will face out of all of them. The offense needs to improve. But I think it just tells you where the program is right now. They are a much better team, but they still have work to do to get to the conference championship level.
Some perspective is important here. There are six teams other than Navy with a .500 or better record in the American. Navy's played three of them, and they're 2-1 in those games, including a win just two weeks ago. They're a good team and a good offense, and they've taken a giant leap forward compared to the last few years. But they'll need some fine-tuning to take the next step.
How do you like this year's A/N uniforms? What's your dream A/N uniform?
- Emmett J.
The uniform looks great. It's one of the best they've done.
Honestly, though, I don't get as excited about the uniform reveals as I used to. There was a time when getting a new, special-edition uniform was A Thing. It's pretty commonplace now, not just for Army-Navy but across college football. My excitement about the reveal has been replaced with a general appreciation of the planning, development, and craftsmanship that go into these every year. Churning out 100 hand-painted helmets for this is insane. I also think it's good for the program to be a clear priority for Under Armour. When you look across the conference and G5 football in general, you won't find that with an apparel provider anywhere else, except maybe with Army. Even then, though, I would argue that Navy is way higher up the food chain for UA than Army is with Nike, for whatever that's worth. Regardless, you value anything that sets you apart from your conference peers, and Navy's relationship with UA is a good thing.
The whole social media war over the uniforms is dumb, too. Every year, you have Army fans on Twitter acting like unappointed authorities on college football uniforms, as if they didn't all cheer for this abomination. But that's different because now there are RULES. A uniform has to HONOR a specific UNIT. Look how our HISTORY DEPARTMENT matched this COLOR to the HAY that BLACK JACK PERSHING used to feed his HORSE. If that's what they like, then good for them. I'm not the target audience for Army's uniforms. Army fans aren't the target audience for Navy's. Why either side cares what the other thinks is beyond me, especially since you can predict what everyone will say before anyone sees either uniform.
(As an aside, it's pretty funny that Jeff Monken is taking to Twitter trying to steal Navy's thunder about uniforms during the week of the biggest Army game in decades. Uniforms!).
As for my favorite, it's Navy's 2014 set. That logo still blows my mind. One day, I hope to see a home version of it.
Navy fans like us will get big up after a win and big down after a loss. However, I have an observation that the best teams we play are strengthened with transfers, and the worst teams we play struggle to keep talent and build consistent teams in the transfer portal era. There seem to be a greater number of lop-sided games, especially early in the season.
Are you seeing a greater disparity between the best teams in our league and the worst teams in our league? Should this influence our expectations going forward?
- Mark H.
Everyone has transfers. The difference is between teams bringing in transfers because they have to and teams bringing in transfers because they want to. All G5 schools are at risk of getting their best players poached by programs with deeper pockets. It's hard to backfill the loss of established players through recruiting, so teams turn to the portal. But there are a few G5 schools that can be more chooser than beggar. Some programs like Memphis have a strong NIL program. Some schools like Rice are attractive for players looking to the future and seeing the value of a prestigious degree. Some programs like Tulane have both. Teams that don't have either will fall behind.
Navy operates outside of this. There are advantages to being a developmental program in this environment. The rule of thumb is that the portal can build a roster, but that's not the same as building a team. I posted some thoughts on this here.
I don't think NIL and the portal have been around long enough to draw too many conclusions about their long-term implications. But I believe there is enough for Navy fans to be optimistic despite conventional wisdom saying otherwise.
If Navy is serious about contending for the AAC championship, is it time to end the ND series? We appear to get a physical beating that carries over for weeks afterward.
- @fiebig_vic41598
This is recency bias. In 2022, Navy lost to Notre Dame and beat #17 UCF a week later. Navy lost to Notre Dame in 2021, then won two out of three to end the year. The 2019 team lost to Notre Dame, then beat #21 SMU, Houston, Army, and Kansas State in its next four games. I'm not saying that Notre Dame isn't a physical game, just that there hasn't been a correlation between playing Notre Dame and a season-ending slump.
Navy fans should think long and hard before tinkering with the Notre Dame series. Most G5 programs have money games against power opponents, but an annual rivalry with a famous history against a blue-blood that gets national media attention every year is completely unheard of. Every G5 program in the country would kill to have what Navy has. It's another thing that makes Navy stand out amongst its peers, and fans should value it accordingly.
You observed last year that the offense experienced some explosiveness and success early on in the season that masked some of the underlying issues. As we put more on film and offenses adjusted, we stalled out quite a bit in the latter half of the season. Are you concerned we are experiencing the same phenomenon this year?
- Ryan F.
No. The problems between last year and the second half of this year are very different. Last year was a scheme problem compounded by injuries, both at quarterback and along the offensive line. This year's problem, at least in recent weeks, has been about execution, made worse by going against good defenses. One is a fundamental flaw, the other is growing pains for an improving program.
Based on what I've read, I think Navy fans are really selling the USF win short, especially given what we know now about Blake Horvath's injury situation. USF's defense had a very good option game plan, and the Mids had two extended drives, got off to a fast start with a big play, and capitalized on a scoring opportunity with only seconds to go before halftime. They did this all while Horvath has been severely limited in the passing game. That was the kind of game where the Mids would have scored 10 points and had 120 rushing yards a year ago. Many fans include USF when listing the offense's problems, but like I said at the time, I see it as one of their biggest triumphs.
Again, though, I think concerns about the offense are fair, and they'll definitely need to put up points to keep pace with ECU. But to me, what we've been seeing are situational problems, not systemic ones.
That first half of the season felt like a dream. Before our losses to ND and Rice brought us back to Earth, Keenan Reynolds opined on one of the Navy Football podcasts that he didn't see any reason why Navy couldn't be a Boise State-like program, consistently winning in the double digits, beating power opponents in bowls, and a regular in the conversation for the G5 playoff bid. Do you think that's overly optimistic in this NIL era? Are fan expectations too high? I'd be ecstatic if 2015, 2016, and 2019 could become the norm and we had some respect from the college football world. It wasn't too long ago we were beating the likes of SMU and Tulane, but it seems like they're now on another level.
- Ryan F.
Sure, but it also wasn't too long ago that Navy was losing to Air Force and Memphis. Programs rise and fall.
Is Tulane really on another level, though? I suppose it depends on what you mean by that. Is the Green Wave any different from other top programs in the conference since Navy joined? Houston, Cincinnati, UCF, Memphis, and USF have had some fantastic teams over the years. Tulane is on another level relative to where they used to be, but I don't think they're at a level the conference hasn't seen before. Other Navy teams were competitive against the top echelon of the American. Like I said before, I don't think NIL changes that. Keep in mind that Navy is coming off of four straight losing seasons. The team is re-learning what it takes to play at a championship level. This year's results should be encouraging for the future, not the opposite.
As to whether Navy can be a Boise State-type program, it should be pointed out that Boise State isn't even a Boise State-type program. We're a decade removed from their last Fiesta Bowl. They're consistent winners and having a great year now, but they haven't been in their BCS-busting form year after year. Teams to receive the "next Boise State" label haven't stayed that way for long. Navy can be a consistent winner, and special seasons are within reach if things go their way. "Expect to win" is a good standard. "Expect the respect of the college football world," though, will only lead to frustration. Other people's opinions are out of the team's control. All they can do is win.