Army Week
Writing game previews this season has at times felt like a bit of a gamble. You don't want to get cocky and write it too early because everything could end up canceled the next day. Every paragraph feels like you're tempting fate. Of course, things could be a lot worse. There was a time when it looked like the 2020 season wouldn't happen at all, so we should be grateful for any chance the players have to compete.
Not surprisingly, making the season happen has been a dogfight. Most schools eventually elected to play, but doing so safely has been a hit-or-miss proposition. Unpredictability and adaptation have been the dominant theme.
Even in a season where nothing is certain, one thing has been ironclad: come hell or high water, Army and Navy would play their annual rivalry game.
"If there's only one game we're going to play," Navy AD Chet Gladchuk said in July, "It's the Army-Navy Game."
Both schools' determination to play the game is a testament to how much it means to them, not just as it relates to football but the institutions overall. Army-Navy is a showcase event, a financial provider, and most importantly, the primary means through which the two academies introduce themselves to the American public. Skipping a year simply wasn't an option.
In the end, high water didn't come, although depending on who you ask, hell might have. Because of COVID restrictions, the city of Philadephia was unable to support hosting the game. No other suitable neutral-site venue could be found on short notice, so this year's game will be held at West Point for the first time since World War II. It's a tough break for Navy that this has become a road game, but it isn't unprecedented this season. It's a repeat of the scenario that preceded the Air Force game, with the Mids traveling to face a team with multiple weeks to prepare for them. Such is life in 2020; everyone just has to roll with it.
Indeed, the COVID-19 situation has set Army and Navy on very different paths. Navy's schedule was protected somewhat by their membership in the American Athletic Conference. As an independent, Army had to scramble to assemble a slate of opponents after most of their scheduled games were canceled. Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo decided at the beginning of the season not to conduct contact practices before the season opener against BYU; it's a decision from which the Mids never fully recovered. Army, on the other hand, went in the opposite direction to protect their team, going so far as to separate them from the rest of the Corps of Cadets by putting them up in a hotel. One can debate whether either decision was appropriate, but there is no question that Army has fared better as a result. With relatively normal preparation and against a pillow-soft schedule, the Black Knights will enter Saturday's game with a 7-2 record, while Navy will limp in at 3-6.
Logically, Army is a heavy favorite. But should they be?
It's a tougher question to answer than you might think. Statistically, Army is better than Navy in just about every category. But would Navy's record be any different against that schedule? Five of Army's wins have come against three FCS schools plus 3-6 Middle Tennessee State and 0-10 Louisiana-Monroe. Those aren't any better than Navy's wins over Temple and ECU. The one team that Army and Navy had in common was Tulane, and while the Mids beat the Green Wave, Army lost, 38-12. None of this is to dismiss Navy's issues, and believe me, there are plenty. However, Army's schedule may have helped to cover up some of their own.
The one obvious issue is at quarterback, where, like Navy, Jeff Monken's team has had difficulty settling on one guy. Christian Anderson, who started against Navy last year, started the first four games this season. Sophomore Jemel Jones started against The Citadel in game five. Cade Ballard, a freshman, started the next two games, while Anderson returned to the starting lineup against Tulane. In Army's last game, against Georgia Southern, it wasn't Anderson, but sophomore Tyhier Tyler who started under center. Injuries were the cause of some of these changes, but not all of them. They are all reportedly healthy now, but the position is still unsettled. I'm not sure how comfortable any of them are running the offense.
Army's schedule had plenty of filler, but three games are of particular interest: The Citadel, Tulane, and Georgia Southern. Other than the Cincinnati game (and it's pointless to overanalyze that one since the Bearcats would steamroll a lot of teams), those three games were the lowest output of Army's season. That's not surprising since each of them has a clue when it comes to defending the option. What stood out to me in those games, though, was that Army ran very little triple option in any of them. There was a lot of inside and outside zone, several traps and belly plays, and some shotgun stuff. The inside veer, however, was largely missing.
It wasn't the first time, either. After the Black Knights defeated UTSA, Monken mentioned that his offense had only practiced seven plays that week and only ran five in the game. I'm not sure if he was exaggerating, but either way, his point still stands that the offense was limited because of his quarterbacks' lack of experience. The plan was for both Ballard and Tyler to get playing time in that game. Tyler started Army's last game and could very well get the start against Navy.
It's a testament to Army's offensive line that they were able to run for 305 yards in that game. Indeed, the group has played well all year, as you would expect a senior-laden unit to do. However, while the Reader's Digest version of the Army offense might have worked against defenses that don't know any better, it's a much more challenging proposition against a team that is well-versed in option football. Despite any other issues they may have had this season, Navy still falls into that category.
Of course, while the issues are different, similar things can be said when Navy has the ball. Much has been made about Navy's quarterbacking game of musical chairs this season. There's Dalen Morris, the senior who has a live arm but doesn't look comfortable running the ball. Tyger Goslin is probably the most well-rounded of the group but doesn't necessarily excel at any one thing. Then there's Xavier Arline, a freshman who is light on experience but is the best as a pure runner. All of them have started games, and all of them have had their moments, but none of them have looked good. That's because Navy's lack of quarterback production this year is a symptom, not the disease. Arline will start for the Mids on Saturday, but the biggest question mark is the offensive line.
This is the one issue that persists after the lack of contact in preseason camp. If a football season is compared to building a house, camp is where a team lays its foundation. You get dialed in on the fundamentals up front so that you can fine-tune your game plan each week. It's not something that you can really catch up on over the course of the season because your practice time has to be spent on your opponent. For the offensive line, that meant taking shortcuts to make up for the lack of reps required to get comfortable cut blocking with the correct body position it takes to keep from getting a penalty. The easiest fix is to stay up and block at the hip, but defenses well-versed in defending the option will eat that alive. That's what has happened to Navy the last two weeks; offensive linemen repeatedly whiffed on blocks, so even option plays that were read properly by the quarterback ended up getting stuffed.
You can see how this is a problem for Navy, since Army is as good at defending the option as anyone in the country.
Army's defense isn't just good against the option, though; they've played well all year. Nate Woody, who was Georgia Tech's defensive coordinator in Paul Johnson's last season, is finishing his first season in that role at West Point and has done an exceptional job. While this is a weird season in terms of how teams stack up against each other statistically, there's no denying that being ranked fourth in the country in total defense is impressive. Senior linebacker Jon Rhattigan is the embodiment of why playing the 2020 season was so important. He barely saw the field before this year but has exploded in his senior season. He has 67 tackles, eight TFLs, and two interceptions in only nine games, with one of those INTs returned for a touchdown. The performance has earned him national attention and a spot among the Bednarik Award semifinalists. Arik Smith is another player to keep an eye on. The 6'0", 240-pound inside linebacker had 11 tackles against The Citadel, which is the closest approximation to Navy's offense that Army has seen this year.
That game against The Citadel was important because it offered a glimpse of Woody's approach to the option. Not surprisingly, it isn't much different from his predecessors. Army lined up in an odd front against the Bulldogs, and unless they decide to get weird with all their extra practice time, they will likely do the same on Saturday. From there, we pretty much know what to expect.
First, as mentioned before, Army's players know what they're doing against the option. That means using their hands to beat blocks, good eye discipline, etc. Navy's offensive will have to play at a level we have yet to see this season if they hope to sustain drives.
Second, over the years, Army has used a variety of stunts in an attempt to confuse the quarterback. This is of particular concern in a year where Navy is starting a freshman. The usual solution to this when the quarterback isn't 100% familiar with the offense is to run him out of the shotgun. It's a compromise. By moving the mesh point further into the backfield, you lose the advantage of the fast-hitting dive plays, but you also slow down the game for the quarterback and limit the kind of stunts the defense can use. I would expect Arline to line up in the shotgun for most of the game.
Third, Army always has excellent backside pursuit from well-prepared linebackers and defensive backs. This is what has driven Navy's playcalling in this rivalry for years.
Because of Army’s familiarity with the Navy offense, the secondary and linebackers are very aggressive in backside pursuit, but they aren’t fooled by misdirection. In the triple option, the ball could go to the fullback, quarterback, or slotback, but generally, the play will be run to the left or the right. The Navy offense's challenge has been to find a way to force the secondary and linebackers to stay at home so that defenders from the backside don't outnumber blockers on the play side.
The solution in last year's game was to run option plays that could take the ball to either side of the formation. Instead of running plays to the left or right, Navy ran plays that went to the left and the right. They started with a fullback trap, but with a twist. It wasn’t just a trap, but a QB/FB option. The quarterback read a defender lined up outside of the tackle. If that defender took the quarterback, he would give the ball to the fullback running to the left. If the defender played the fullback, the QB would keep and run to the right.
Because the play could potentially go to either side of the formation, defenders had to stay on either side of the formation.
Later, ran this play with the FB trap going in the same direction as the pre-snap motion. The defensive end was the quarterback's read, and he followed the direction of the motion, which became a keep read.
Navy used this to set up their first touchdown. Rather than run the same left/right trap option, the Mids ran a more typical QB/pitch trap option. The pitch man came from the play side and did a reverse pivot. The defensive end followed the pre-snap motion so far inside that he ran himself out of the play; the pulling guard didn’t even need to trap him. That allowed the guard to block someone else; in this case, the middle linebacker. Suddenly, Navy had a numbers advantage, and one open-field turned it into a big play.
They also ran the same plays under center.
The other left/right combination that Navy used was a simple zone read. The zone read is either a quarterback keep or a zone running play, depending on the QB’s read of the defensive end or outside linebacker.
Of course, this was last year's game, with a senior quarterback, an offensive line in peak form, and two weeks to prepare. Navy has none of those things this season, and they may not want to be so heavily dependent on a freshman quarterback when there are more proven runners elsewhere.
On paper, Army has every advantage in this game. They would be a tough opponent in a normal year, but playing at home after having three weeks to prepare stacks the deck. It's up to Navy to rise to the challenge. If they do, it will change how this entire season will be remembered.