The UAB Preview

There haven't been too many bright spots for Navy football over the last few years, but one ray of sunshine came last season when UAB squared off against the Mids in Annapolis. At the time, the Blazers had the American's top passing offense while Navy was reeling after brutal back-to-back losses to Air Force and Temple. The injuries at quarterback were especially frustrating, with Xavier Arline being the Mids' fourth signal-caller to start a game. But then the UAB game happened, and suddenly, there was hope. The Mids ran for 269 yards while the defense kept UAB out of the end zone, and Navy won 31-6.

Many Navy fans took this as a sign that the Mids had turned the corner. Those who felt the instability at quarterback was the team's biggest problem were encouraged by Arline's performance. In reality, though, the win was fool's gold. The signs were all there at the time. The game was much closer than the score made it seem; Navy only had ten points through three quarters. The offense couldn't sustain drives; over a third of their total plays came on one possession. They scored 14 points in the fourth quarter using what was essentially a new offense. UAB couldn't have prepared for it, but every subsequent Navy opponent did, and the Mids never replicated the offensive production of that afternoon.

Today, it's a whole different story for the Midshipmen as they prepare for the rematch in Birmingham. One might have wondered if the wins over Bucknell and Temple were also an illusion, but last week's takedown of preseason AAC favorite Memphis showed that this time, Navy is indeed born again hard. But their newfound position in the driver's seat of the AAC brings with it a new set of challenges. There's no sneaking up on anyone anymore. The secret's out. From now on, we know the Mids will get every team's best shot. Then again, UAB would be an interesting matchup regardless of whether Navy had a target on its back.

After three games, UAB has their own identity questions. What is the real Blazer team? Is it the one that rolled up 517 yards of offense in the opener against Alcorn State and pushed Arkansas for 60 minutes? Or is it the team that laid an egg against ULM? The answer is probably both. Trent Dilfer's team reflects a program in transition in his second year. There are definite signs of improvement, but there are still weaknesses that some teams can exploit. The question for Navy is whether they are one of those teams.

The answer may lie in how the Mids handle quarterback Jacob Zeno. While Seth Henigan is more of the NFL quarterback archetype, Zeno presents a style of play that the Mids have yet to encounter this year. He isn't asked to run very often, although he is capable when called upon. Instead, he uses his quickness to move in the pocket, avoid sacks, and extend plays. When he rolls out, he creates conflict with defenders deciding between stopping the scramble or sticking with their coverage. Often, both choices are wrong.

That style of play fits in well with what UAB tries to do offensively. Zeno has an absurdly high completion percentage. Last year, Zeno was second in the nation, completing 73.6 percent of his throws. He's above 70 percent again so far this year. While Zeno's arm talent is evident, those numbers also reflect the types of throws he usually asked to make. UAB's bread and butter is a constant barrage of short passes, using the short and horizontal passing game as an extension of their running game. But it's the threat of the deep ball that makes the offense go. They're like an option offense in that they both suck you in, gradually forcing you to inch forward before throwing over the top when you cheat too much. Then you have to back off, which leaves the offense room to operate underneath again. Rinse and repeat.

We saw that early in last year's game. On this play, the cornerback was supposed to drop into a deep zone, but he was caught with his eyes in the backfield as the ball went over his head.

Zeno was still a deep ball threat even when the Mids did everything right. Here, the defense was in a two-deep zone. The cornerback, not the safety, was responsible for covering the deep half of the field. However, on this play, the receiver who lined up inside him ran a seam route. With the receiver having immediate inside leverage, the cornerback was basically beaten before the ball was even snapped. Zeno delivered a perfect throw, but the receiver dropped it.

Early on, UAB also was effective running the ball. They ran delayed zone runs where defenders would all commit to their gaps before the running back bounced outside to a different one.

That basically lays out what the defense was dealing with. They had to stop the run and the short passing game in a way that didn’t leave them exposed to the deep ball. Against the run, they started run blitzing. Here, you can see two defenders coming off the edge. The tackle could only take one of them, and the other got to the running back before he had a chance to bounce outside.

Against the pass, the Mids adjusted to the close calls on those deep throws by playing a lot of soft zone. On third and long, they’d sometimes rush as few as two, hoping to force Zeno to either check down or throw into coverage.

But what really made that approach work was Navy’s defensive line. Usually, it’s a tradeoff between coverage and pressure, but Navy’s defensive line was dominant enough to get pressure on their own even when the Mids only brought three or four after the quarterback. The Mids could have their cake and eat it too.

One would think that Navy would try the same approach this year, but it might not be as successful. While the Mids are still athletic up front, UAB's offensive line is not the same depleted unit they were last year. They have two returning starters from 2023. A third, guard Zaire Flournoy, was expected to start last year before a preseason injury sidelined him. He's back. UAB also brought in transfers JonDarius Morgan from South Carolina and D.J. Jones, who started 22 games at Murray State. It's probably asking too much to expect Navy to just bullrush their way into the backfield as they did a year ago. If they can't, they'll have to find different ways to keep Zeno from getting comfortable and dinking and dunking his way down the field.

This is also a different kind of challenge for the Navy offense. One of the silver linings from coming off of a bad season is that when you struggle on offense against a team, they're likely to recycle that game plan the next year. We saw it with Temple and, to a lesser extent, Memphis. But that won't be the case against UAB. Defensive coordinator Sione Ta'ufo'ou will have something different to show the Mids after giving up 269 rushing yards to them in 2023. The Navy offense will have to show that they can make adjustments on the fly against a team at a higher level than Bucknell.

For their part, UAB's defense is making strides, at least on paper. The Blazers are currently third in the country in pass defense, giving up only 102.7 yards per game through the air. They're a very respectable 40th nationally in total defense. Opposing quarterbacks have completed only 46 percent of their throws against them. A big reason for that is those quarterbacks have been running for their lives. UAB had five sacks against Alcorn State and three against Arkansas. This from a team that was 118th in total defense and 127th in scoring defense a year ago.

Not everything is peachy, though. UAB was also 123rd in rushing defense, allowing 197 yards per game on the ground. So far this year, that doesn't seem to have improved much. Over their last two games, they have given up 475 rushing yards on 5.5 yards per carry. While UAB's pass defense is improved, part of their statistical success has come from teams opting to run the ball against them.

In theory, that should be right in Navy's wheelhouse. However, we know better; there is a difference between defending the run and defending the option. Against the latter, a physically imposing defensive line can go a long way. At his weekly media call, Navy offensive coordinator Drew Cronic spoke about his concern over the UAB defense's length. Their front four stands 6-4, 6-4, 6-5, and 6-6. Six of the team's eight sacks have come from the defensive line, including two from 6-6, 240-pound edge rusher Desmond Little, a transfer from LSU. As good as Memphis' defense is, this is a different physical challenge that could limit slower-developing misdirection plays if the Mids have trouble blocking them.

For Navy, this game is sort of like the opener for a second season. It's the Mids' first road game, and with only two more dates in Annapolis for the rest of the year, they'd better get used to it. And after beating the conference favorites, it's the first game where expectations are officially through the roof. That's a lot of potential distraction, and that's before getting into things like hurricane travel and exam week. Navy's players have been vocal about being locked in and not "choking on the sugar," but they're also college students. How Navy adjusts—both on and off the field— will go a long way toward determining the outcome of this game.

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