I am a romantic when it comes to college football, so you probably won't be surprised to learn that I find the current state of the game depressing. Several factors, including the advent of the College Football Playoff, are choking the spirit, charm, and college-ness out of the sport.
For most of college football's history, the sport was very territorial. Teams played schedules comprised mostly of other regional schools, and if they had a good season, they might be invited to a bowl game. Bowl games were special; not only were they seen as a culminating achievement, but they were matchups between teams of different regions that you rarely saw. In my house, New Year's Eve festivities didn't start until the Liberty Bowl ended. New Year's Day was essentially a national holiday of college football, from the 11 am kickoff of the Hall of Fame Bowl to the final whistle of the Orange Bowl. The day was spent bouncing from channel to channel because you didn't want to miss any of it.
Sadly, most of that experience is gone now, sacrificed for the sake of better money-making television products. Today, college football's regional character has been replaced by sprawling superconferences, where UCLA and Rutgers play under the same banner. The Playoff has turned most bowl games into a disappointment: symbols of not making the Playoff. Players transfer before the games are played. Others leave the team to prepare for the NFL Draft. Coaches leave for new teams. And while some high-profile games have been integrated into the Playoff, they aren't the same. Once upon a time, Texas-Georgia would have made a highly-anticipated Cotton Bowl matchup. Now it's a game we're hoping to avoid seeing for the third time this year. And the Rose Bowl-- the granddaddy of them all-- has been reduced to a stepping-stone quarterfinal rematch between conference opponents.
It hurts to consider everything that's been taken away from us.
I think that's the main reason why I'm so excited about Navy playing Oklahoma in the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl. From a Navy point of view, this game is a throwback to everything bowl games used to be. It's a perfect example of the rare intersectional matchups that used to define college football's postseason. The Midshipmen and the Sooners have only played once, all the way back in 1965. It might be another 60 years before they play each other again. This matchup is literally a once-in-a-lifetime event. The game is a sellout, so the environment will be one of the best of the postseason. It's hard to imagine a better cherry to place atop Navy's resurgent season.
Still, one could understand if Oklahoma isn't quite as excited. The Sooners are a program that enters every season with championship aspirations, and hopes were high for their first year in the SEC. They won ten games in 2023, and that was with a defense that wasn't up to the standard you'd expect from a Brent Venables team. This year, while Oklahoma had a new offensive coordinator and needed to replace Dillon Gabriel at quarterback, there were high hopes that the defense, led by All-American linebacker Danny Stutsman, was ready to carry the team. It didn't happen. The Sooners' defense was as good as you could hope for, but they couldn't overcome the lack of explosiveness on offense. Offensive coordinator Seth Littrell was fired in October, and the team comes to Fort Worth with a 6-6 record. They now have 25 players in the portal, with more-- including Stutsman-- opting to skip the game to prepare for their pro careers.
The volatility makes it difficult to get a read on the game. Even when Oklahoma was playing at full strength, they were inconsistent. They started 4-1 and were ranked as high as 15th in the AP Poll. Then, they lost five of their next seven. That stretch included a 34-3 loss to Texas but a 24-3 win over Alabama. But Oklahoma will definitely not be at full strength. The list of players left off the depth chart for the bowl game includes starting quarterback Jackson Arnold, leading rusher Jovantae Barnes (injury), leading receiver Bauer Sharp at tight end, and top deep threat J.J. Hester. It's hard to imagine Oklahoma will be better with all those guys missing, right?
Probably. But I think there's something to be said for guys excited to get their chance to shine. And with a new offensive coordinator coming in, everyone will want to give a good impression. Besides, it's not like the team left behind lacks talent and experience. Quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. might be a freshman, but he's started three games this year, including the win over Auburn. Running back Xavier Robinson ran for 107 yards and two touchdowns against Alabama. The Sooners may also get a boost from the return of wide receiver Deion Burks, who has missed seven games due to injury. He had 31 catches in his first five games, though, and he's back on the depth chart for Friday. These guys may not be the ones who carried the team through the season, but they're still talented. They wouldn't be at Oklahoma if they weren't.
The real question for Oklahoma's offense is along the line. It's been a tough season up front. The Sooners had difficulty settling on the right combination of linemen; they had a different starting five in each of their first eight games, partly due to injuries. But while they settled on a starting group over the last four games, the offense's performance hasn't changed much. Against FBS competition, Oklahoma is 127th in the country in total yards per game. Other than against FCS Maine, the Sooners have eclipsed 350 total yards only once: in the opener against Temple. When Oklahoma wants to run the ball, the line is giving up 8.36 TFLs per game against FBS competition, which is the fourth-worst in the country. When they try to throw, they've given up 4.18 sacks per FBS game, which is second-worst. That's especially glaring when you consider that the Sooners are only 105th in the country in passing attempts. As a result, the explosiveness just hasn't been there. Only Kennesaw State has fewer plays of 20+ yards this year.
Of course, this comes with an important caveat. Oklahoma plays in the SEC. Problems that SEC defenses can expose aren't necessarily problems that can be exploited by anyone else, including Navy. Indeed, the Sooners were 4-0 in out-of-conference play, including two wins over teams from the American Athletic Conference. Given what Tulane did to Navy, the Sooners' 34-19 victory over the Green Wave should indicate what they're capable of. But I don't think Oklahoma's problems can be attributed entirely to their schedule. Even in those wins over Temple and Tulane, they still only averaged 363 total yards. That's respectable, but it isn't extraordinary. For context, Temple surrendered 438 ypg against AAC opponents. They gave up 409 to Navy. Every matchup is different, so comparing total yardage between games is of limited value. But you would expect a team like Oklahoma to drive Temple's total defense average up, not pulling it down, right?
So, if total offense hasn't been an indicator of Oklahoma's success, what has? You can point to two things, starting with turnovers. Temple and Tulane combined for eight turnovers when they played the Sooners, and that's been a trend. In Oklahoma's six wins, they're +11 in turnover margin. In their six losses, they're -10. The other factor determining Oklahoma's success this year has been their ability to run the football. In their six wins, the Sooners have averaged 5.1 yards per carry and scored 14 rushing touchdowns. In their six losses, they averaged 2.59 ypc and scored two TDs.
Based on this, we have two obvious keys to the game for the Mids: win the turnover battle and stop the run. On paper, Navy should match up well. Oklahoma is last in the country in fumbles lost, putting the ball on the ground 25 times and losing 14 of them. Navy makes stripping the ball a focus of their defense and is in the top 15 nationally in forced fumbles. The Mids also just held the nation's top rushing offense to 2.9 yards per carry and held USF to only 60 yards on the ground. Navy's unconventional run fits should challenge a struggling Oklahoma offensive line. While Navy's typical plan in a game against an SEC opponent would be to try to prevent the big play, against the Sooners, they should be aggressive and force the offensive line to prove it can both run block and keep the quarterback's jersey clean.
Of course, the Navy offense has to find ways to score, too, and that's no small task. As expected from a Venables squad, Oklahoma's defense is 12th in the country against the run. And while defending the run is different from defending the option, there's reason to believe that Oklahoma can do both.
The Sooners' coaching staff has more option experience than you might expect from an SEC defense. Venables and his two defensive co-coordinators, Todd Bates and Zac Alley, all coached at Clemson when the Tigers regularly faced The Citadel. In 2017, they beat the Bulldogs 61-3. In 2020, it was 49-0, and the Bulldogs were held to 86 rushing yards. You'd expect a physical mismatch between those two teams, and that definitely played a part in the outcome. But Venables' defense also showed some option know-how, too.
Oklahoma's base defense is a four-man front, with a hybrid LB/DB player they call a "Cheetah" to give either a 4-3 or 4-2-5 look, depending on the situation. Against The Citadel, though, they lined up primarily in an odd front. Sometimes, they lined up with a 0 technique, and sometimes, they shaded the line toward the field. They shifted to a six-man front on occasion, and they always did so when the offense used an unbalanced line.
The Citadel opened the game with the QB/FB midline option, but because Clemson was in an odd front, the playside guard doubled up on the 0 tech to ensure that the A gap was clear for the fullback. That left the slotback to block the backside ILB, but the play developed too quickly for him to get to his assignment in time.
The Tigers used various stunts to make the quarterback's reads more difficult and confuse the offensive line.
Sometimes, they used a mesh charge, with the defensive end pretending to take the fullback but stepping into the quarterback's path at the last second.
They also ran the EZ stunt when they lined up in an even front.
Knowing that the offensive linemen leave players unblocked to get to assignments on the second and third levels, the defensive line often would squeeze the playside OL to prevent them from doing so. The quarterback sees that as a keep read, and when the ball goes outside, unblocked defenders are free to run to it.
Venables also used late stemming on the defensive line to change the offense's blocking rules at the last second. If they didn't adjust, a linebacker would go unblocked into the backfield.
Clemson also showed an understanding of how the fullback's reads work. In the triple option, the fullback reads the first defensive lineman on or inside the B gap. If the lineman goes left, the fullback goes right, and vice versa. Here, Clemson intentionally slanted the defensive tackle one way to force the fullback in the opposite direction, then blitzed a linebacker into that gap.
On an individual level, Clemson's defenders were also well-coached on how to use their hands to beat cut blocks:
The Citadel also didn't play well, but it probably wouldn't have made much of a difference if they had.
There is the potential here for another USF-style game. Venables has shown that he understands how the option works, and the way he mixes up his stunts makes it difficult for the offense to adjust. And while Stutsman may not be playing, a lot of talent that is, especially up front. Oklahoma's defensive line is a strength. Nose tackle Damonic Williams has started all 12 games. The defensive ends are particularly athletic. Ethan Downs was an All-Big-12 selection in 2022 and again in 2023. R Mason Thomas has nine sacks this year, along with 11 QB hurries, and was named to the All-SEC second team. We saw that Tulane's fast and athletic defensive ends were a problem for the Mids, stringing plays out and running them down from behind. Oklahoma has the potential to do the same thing.
There is a key difference, though. Most teams who know they're playing Navy start working on them in fall camp. They dedicate at least a period or two of option work in each practice so that it isn't foreign to the defense when game week rolls around. But Oklahoma didn't know they would be playing Navy until after the end of the season. Even if Venables and Co. know what they're doing against the option, that doesn't mean they've had the time to teach their players everything they'd want to do. The limited practice time might force Oklahoma to keep things simple, which would work in Navy's favor.
Another thing to watch for in this game is Navy's play action. Oklahoma's cornerbacks have some starting experience, but they're also a freshman and sophomore facing an offense like Navy's for the first time. If their eye discipline is off even for a second, there could be opportunities for Navy in the passing game.
I think this matchup is one of the most interesting of the bowl season, and the environment looks like it will be one of the best. It's a great finale for this senior class, who have fought through some hard times. To go out with ten wins would be a tremendous achievement. Here's hoping they make the most of the opportunity.