The Navy-Houston Preview

Most game previews on this site have a few common elements. I like to tell the story of what the game means to both teams, look at key players, and figure out how the coaches will use them. One of the best things about college football is that each game feels special, and in my own way, I attempt to capture that vibe.

None of that seems important this week, though. Not if you're a Navy fan, anyway. There isn't much of a story to be told when a team is struggling as much as the Mids. They just have to get better. In a way, it doesn't matter who Navy plays this week; they need to show something to themselves, for themselves... Something to put the drama of the past week behind them. After all, we're only two games into the season, and there is so much left to play for.

Ken Niumatalolo made that point in his weekly media call on Monday.

"We've got a lot to play for," he said. "I mean, everybody wants to bury the season, but we've got ten games, you know what I mean? We got ten games, hopefully 11. It's like the world ended last week. I guess that's the disappointment. You're so disappointed in the loss, but every loss, every win, you have to move on, especially so early in the season."

Niumatalolo brought up the 2012 season, where his team got off to a 1-3 start that included a blowout loss to Notre Dame in Dublin and getting shut out by San Jose State at home. The Mids picked up a win at Air Force, and it turned the season around. Could a win against Houston in the conference opener have a similar effect?

Perhaps. A win over the Cougars would completely change the prevailing narrative, if nothing else. But unless the Navy offense returns to form, it won't happen. And if there's a story for this week, that's it: can the offense be fixed?

In the spring before the 2019 season, Niumatalolo said that one of the problems from the previous season was that he had Malcolm Perry running an offense that was built for Will Worth. At 6'1" and 205 pounds, Worth was a different player than the 5'9", 190-pound Perry. Worth, Zach Abey, and Garret Lewis were all of a similar build, and the Navy offense became more of a power running game with those QBs at the helm. For 2019, Niumatalolo stated that the offense would be adjusted to take advantage of Perry's strengths. Navy returned to being more of a spread option team.

That lesson provides for some interesting context for this year's offensive woes. There was a competition for the starting quarterback position between Tai Lavatai and Xavier Arline all through spring and fall, and even now, it hasn't been officially resolved. A quarterback competition is hardly unprecedented, but it's noteworthy that the two players have different styles that reflect the 2018-2019 adjustment; Niumatalolo said that Lavatai is in the power mold of Worth, while Arline is more of a slasher like Perry. Did that contrast affect the Mids' preparation for the season? Has the inability to settle on a quarterback also meant the inability to settle on an identity? After all, the rest of the offense has to practice these plays too. By accommodating both, does that make you less effective in running either?

I asked Niumatalolo that question, and he felt that there was some merit to the idea.

"Yeah, it does," he said. "But there's different things that you accentuate on offense. Maybe this guy, you're putting more of an emphasis on certain plays. If you get a quarterback that establishes himself, you can get an identity, what you're going to do and what you're going to focus on. And probably right now, we've been kind of dabbling a lot as we're trying to get some success."

The use of that word-- dabbling-- caught my attention. You have to guard against seizing on off-the-cuff statements and blowing them out of proportion, and I freely admit that I could be doing that here. Still, that's a dangerous word. For an option team, dabbling is death.

There is a reason why option offenses are so effective. If the triple option is blocked correctly, and if the quarterback reads it correctly, it is virtually guaranteed to pick up three yards no matter how good the defense is. The play just hits too quickly not to. That puts the defense in an impossible spot. If they keep doing what they're doing, they'll get ground down by a 15-play, 10-minute drive. So instead, they start to cheat, and that's when the big plays open up, whether it's through play-action, misdirection, or another complementary option flavor.

The problem, and one reason why more teams don't run the triple option, is that it takes genuine, almost exclusive dedication to the cause. You have to reach a high level of consistency to grind out long drives 3-4 yards at a time. Getting that consistency takes practice-- lots and lots of practice-- and practicing almost nothing else. It's a perfect example of the old cliché; you don't practice until you get it right. You practice until you can't get it wrong. Once you reach that kind of proficiency with your base plays, you can branch out into other concepts.

That's why any notion of "dabbling" is so dangerous. Everything that Navy does on offense depends on their ability to run the option and force defenses to adjust. If they can't do so consistently, nothing else they try will matter. And right now, they can't do so consistently. Navy's red-zone woes have been a hot topic so far this season, but the reason why the Mids have faltered isn't a mystery. They just haven't reached that elite level of option mastery. It's classic bend-but-don't-break; defenses just have to keep the ball in front of them and force Navy to execute their way down the field. They haven't been able to do so; invariably, the Mids have made a drive-killing mistake.

This brings us back to the original point. It really shouldn't matter if the two competing quarterbacks have different styles. The core of the offense is the same either way. Navy has to concentrate on building up that proficiency first. Once one of those quarterbacks demonstrates superior ability with the bread and butter, they can perhaps move on to complementary plays that accentuate his strengths.

I asked Coach Niumatalolo if that is what the team is working on now.

"Exactly. That's exactly what's happening," he said.

"There's so many different things, and we're just trying to make sure we can get good at some stuff. And then, when a guy takes it and runs with it, then you can kind of play to his skill set a little bit more."

It would appear, then, that the extra week of practice may have been spent working on the fundamentals. If that's the case, then it's a good thing. The question would then become how much the offense can actually improve with one extra week. On the one hand, these are issues that normally get addressed over the course of 15 spring practices and two weeks of fall camp. On the other hand, the offense isn't starting from scratch. The idea here would be more of a rededication than an overhaul. Is it enough? I don't know. But if the Navy offense can get its act together, they have a chance for a big game.

If there's a silver lining to Navy having a bad season, it's that teams will often recycle the option game plans that worked for them. The plan that Houston used in 2020 is one that other Navy teams have chewed to bits. The Cougars played an even front, but they would shift the defensive line based on the Mids' formation; in the first half of the game, the Mids used a lot of heavy formations/unbalanced line because of it. The biggest opportunity, though, came on the perimeter. Houston had their linebackers shift toward the field, which left a numbers advantage to the boundary side on almost every play. That's where most of Navy's option plays were run.

Obviously, none of this will matter if Navy's execution isn't up to standards. It also won't matter if they can't block anybody. Houston returns nine starters from its 2020 defense, including three of the four players on a defensive line that dominated the Mids more than any other team. David Anenih and Derek Parish on either end are fast enough to track plays down from behind. Logan Hall is a two-year starter and anchor in the middle. The newcomer to this group is Latrell Bankston, who transferred from Iowa State. For a Navy offensive line that struggled to open holes against Air Force, the task doesn't get any easier.

The same can be said for the Navy defense. That the Mids performed well against the option of Air Force wasn't much of a surprise. Now they have to change gears to face an offense that will challenge them in a whole different manner.

Houston head coach Dana Holgorsen is well-known as one of the original practitioners of the Air Raid offense. However, the one difference between Holgorsen and other Air Raid coaches has been his willingness to run the ball. Last year, the Cougars ran for 143 yards per game; that's not an extraordinary amount, but it's a far cry from Mississippi State's 43.9 ypg under Mike Leach.

The basic idea behind the Air Raid is to have five receivers on every play. They are spread across the field, and there will always be at least one receiver in short, medium, and long patterns. In theory, a zone defense would be stretched thin enough to always leave an open receiver. Against a man defense, the offense counts on their fifth receiver being better than the defense's fifth defensive back. If the defense tries to bring extra pass rushers, the offense will throw a tunnel screen. In a way, it's like an option offense in that the quarterback has specific keys, and what those keys do determines what the quarterback does with the ball.

Holgorsen approaches the concept from a different angle. By using the run as more than just a novelty, defenses have to make it more of a priority. That makes the passing game more of a big-play generator. At 3.35 yards per carry, Houston isn't the most outstanding running team, but with 38 rushes per game so far, they've shown that they're committed to it. Holgorsen isn't necessarily looking to have his quarterback throw the ball 60 times per game like you sometimes see from Air Raid QBs. His goal in the passing game is more about quality than quantity.

You can sort of get a sense, then, of how Houston's offense is a bad matchup for a banged-up Navy defense. If you bring extra numbers, you leave your secondary in one-on-one matchups minus a starting safety. If you zone blitz but can't get to the quarterback, you risk having a nose guard covering someone like Nathaniel Dell, who is averaging 100 receiving yards per game, on a crossing route. Nobody named "Biscuit" should be put in that position. If you sit back, quarterback Clayton Tune will nickel and dime his way down the field; he is completing 70.7 percent of his passes this season. None of these options are appealing.

Then again, the same could have been said last year, and Navy's defense responded with one of their better performances of the season. They held Houston to 86 rushing yards and 2.8 yards per carry. They didn't come after the quarterback too often, but they still had a sack and three QB hurries. They forced a turnover in Houston territory. Houston got the ball at midfield twice in the first half and was limited to a field goal both times. This year, Houston enters the Navy game with their own set of questions. The Cougars are 2-1, but they haven't set the world on fire offensively. They are averaging only 227 passing yards per game and are 93rd nationally at 6.8 yards per attempt. Tune is the team's second-leading rusher, but a hamstring injury suffered against Grambling will limit that element of his game, assuming he plays. He's already thrown five interceptions this year, although four of them came in the opener against Texas Tech. Regardless, while Houston's wins over Rice and Grambling were dominant, they weren't the result of overwhelming firepower.

Then again, unless Navy's offense improves, they won't need it.

This is an important game for Houston and Holgorsen in particular. His hiring was a big deal; for a school in the American to pluck a coach from the Big 12 was no small thing, even if his welcome at West Virginia was reportedly wearing thin. However, the results have yet to match the hype. Houston is coming off of consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 2001-2002. To be fair, there were extenuating circumstances. In 2019, quarterback D'Eriq King decided to redshirt in the middle of the season, and several of his teammates followed suit. Last year was crazy for just about everyone. Now, in year three, expectations are high, especially considering the Cougars' schedule. They already have wins over Grambling and Rice out of conference, and they'll cap off the season against hapless UConn. In the conference, they miss out on playing Cincinnati and UCF while getting SMU and Memphis at home. Anything less than nine wins will feel like a letdown, especially as the program wants to build momentum before joining the Big 12.

The pressure is on for both teams, although more so for Navy. After an 0-2 homestand to start the year, the Mids are desperate to stop the bleeding. Doing so will take a level of performance that we've yet to see from the offense. Hopefully, the bye week was well-spent.

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