The Delaware Preview

For Navy football, it might not be. At this year's football media day, Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo was asked to talk about games later in the year, but he wasn't interested. There was only one game on his mind.

"Our main focus right now is to get ready for Delaware," he said. "We had a bad start last year. We didn't play very well at all versus Marshall, so the emphasis is to get off to a great start with Delaware."

Navy has gotten off to a dreadful start in the last two seasons, actually. The 2020 opener against BYU was at least understandable; the Mids hadn't had a real practice and were squaring off against the best Cougar team in years. Last season, on the other hand, was a disaster. To get blown out at home against a good-but-not-that-good Marshall team was a bad omen. Things were supposed to be closer to normal in 2021. They were not.

Yet as bad as Navy was last season, they did improve. The Mids finished by winning three out of their last five games, had moments where they looked like an actual Navy offense toward the end, and beat Army to go out on a high note. Almost everyone who played in those games has returned, eager to show how much progress they've made. Now, things truly are back to normal in practice, according to the coaches. Tai Lavatai has taken control of the offense. The defense is ready to prove themselves. There is even a hint of confidence as the team enters the 2022 campaign, although it's fragile; nothing will kill these narratives faster than for the Mids to stumble out of the gate once more. Win, and the optimism train picks up steam. Lose, and thoughts of "here we go again" become infectious.

It might be a long season, but it'll be much longer for the Mids if last year's miscues aren't behind them. So no, calling the Delaware game a must-win isn't hyperbole.

Delaware was once a fixture on Navy's schedules. The Mids and the Blue Hens have faced each other 17 times, including every season but one from 1985-1996. For most of the '80s and early '90s, Navy straddled the line between I-A and I-AA football, scheduling as many as four I-AA teams each year. Because its campus is only 90 minutes from Annapolis, Delaware was a better draw than most I-AA schools and a natural opponent. They have traditionally been one of the top programs in I-AA/FCS as well, so they won a fair share of those games, with the last coming as recently as 2007. Since then, however, the games haven't been close; the Mids went 3-0 while outscoring the Blue Hens 126-42 in their three meetings from 2009-2013. A lot has changed since then.

Delaware was once among the most stable football programs in the country, with only two head coaches from 1966-2012: the legendary Tubby Raymond, and K.C. Keeler, alumnus and star linebacker from Raymond's 1979 Division II championship team. In only his second season, Keeler led Delaware to the I-AA national championship. It would be the first of three championship game appearances for Keeler, to go along with four playoff appearances and a share of three conference titles. Not bad for a decade's work.

It was a bit of a surprise then that Keeler was fired after the 2012 season, especially considering the move came seven weeks after Delaware's season ended. The timing led to speculation that some wrongdoing behind the scenes must have been uncovered, although the Delaware AD at the time, Eric Ziady, denied that was the case. Ziady had only been in Newark for less than a month when Delaware's season ended; not enough time to really evaluate the program. Once he did, he apparently didn't like what he saw. For all of Keeler's accomplishments, the program had become very inconsistent. While the team went to the FCS championship game in 2010, they also missed the playoffs in six of Keeler's last eight years. That 2010 team had a top-20 FCS offense and was #5 in total defense. By 2012, they were ranked 84th in offense and 63rd in defense. The drop in production led to a decline in attendance as well.

Whether removing Keeler was the right call is up for debate; he's had tremendous success at Sam Houston State since then (more on that in a minute). However, what isn't up for debate is that Delaware hasn't been any better since he left. Rutgers offensive coordinator Dave Brock took over for Keeler but was fired halfway through the 2016 season. Brock was replaced by Richmond head coach Danny Rocco, who had just taken the Spiders to three straight FCS playoff appearances. Rocco had a little more success; Delaware lost in the first round of the playoffs in 2018 and advanced to the semifinals in the COVID-shortened 2020 spring season. However, after a 5-6 campaign in 2021, Rocco was also let go. Now it's Ryan Carty's turn to try to right the ship.

Delaware has come full circle in a way, since Carty is very closely linked to Keeler. As a player, he was a backup quarterback under Keeler from 2002-2006. Carty started his coaching career at New Hampshire, where he coached multiple offensive positions before eventually being promoted to offensive coordinator in 2012. His New Hampshire offenses were never spectacular; he fielded top-30 offenses in his first three seasons calling the plays, but they were never ranked higher than 64th after that. However, New Hampshire made the FCS playoffs every year of Carty's tenure, including two semifinal appearances. In fact, the way New Hampshire kept winning even without a blistering offense might have been what convinced Keeler that Carty was the right fit for Sam Houston State.

The Bearkats have been an offensive powerhouse for as long as anyone can remember, although the methods have changed somewhat. Offensive coordinator Phil Longo's units featured two-time Walter Payton Award-winning quarterback Jeremiah Briscoe leading some of the fastest offenses in football, averaging as many as 85 plays per game in a season. However, after SHSU lost to North Dakota State in the 2017 FCS semifinals, Keeler felt that his program needed a change of approach; they had the top offense in FCS for three straight years but couldn't break through in the playoffs. North Dakota State had a stranglehold on the FCS, and if he was going to get over that hurdle, Keeler knew his team would have to stop the run. Part of doing so meant altering the offense, changing how his team practiced and keeping his defense off the field during games. When Longo left for Ole Miss, it became Carty's job to put those changes in place.

It wasn't a smooth start; the Bearkats fell to 6-5 in 2018, Carty's first year in Hunstville. They were 7-5 the following year, but there were signs that the plan was working. SHSU had the top rushing defense in FCS, and their fortunes might have been a lot different if they hadn't lost three quarterbacks due to injuries. They proved that point the following season. In the COVID-shortened "2020" spring season, Sam Houston State won the FCS national championship. Carty's offense was still ranked in the top ten nationally despite running only 68.2 plays per game. The Bearkats had another fine season last year, finishing the regular season undefeated before being upset by Montana State in the playoffs. Carty's offense was again fantastic, ranking fifth in the country at 490.9 yards per game. With Delaware leadership looking to fix a team that finished 105th in total offense a year ago, Carty seemed like the answer to a lot of questions.

While the specific Xs and Os are still a bit of a mystery heading into Saturday, from a purely philosophical standpoint, Carty seems like someone specifically designed to take on Navy. He is the engineer of a high-scoring offense who comes from a program with a culture rooted in stopping the run. Of course, Xs and Os matter; in many ways, stopping the run is different from stopping the option. With previous coaching stops at Liberty, Richmond, and Lafayette, defensive coordinator Manny Rojas hasn't seen the triple option since facing VMI as a linebacker in his senior season at Liberty. Regardless of the schemes the two of them concoct, though, they have the players in place to get the job done.

Expectations were high for Delaware heading into last season, with a preseason top-5 ranking thanks to returning talent like running back Dejoun Lee, the CAA player of the year in 2020. However, the season fell off the rails when all-conference quarterback Nolan Henderson suffered an injury in the fourth game vs. UAlbany. The Blue Hens went 2-5 the rest of the way. This year, Henderson is back, and so are the expectations. Despite last year's losing record, Delaware is ranked in the top 20 in both major FCS polls, acknowledging the talent returning to the team.

Seven offensive starters are back, with eight starters as seniors or older. The offense's strength is likely to be through the air, with Henderson throwing to a pair of all-conference targets. Back for his sixth year, Thyrick Pitts was an All-CAA performer in 2021, grabbing 43 catches for 669 yards and seven touchdowns. He's as reliable as they come, having recorded a catch in 30-straight games. Michael Jackson Jr. is a transfer from VMI, where he caught 51 passes for 695 yards and six touchdowns and earned All-SoCon honors. That pair, along with Henderson, will likely need to do the heavy lifting for the offense until the running back situation is sorted out. Quincy Watson and Marcus Yarns are still unproven; they have only 270 career rushing yards between them. They are also running behind an offensive line that, while it features some experienced players, has not been a strength of the team.

Last year's Delaware defense has a story similar to Navy's. They were very good, but on the field way too much. With five all-conference players returning to Rojas' 3-3-5 scheme, the goal now is to make the jump from "good" to "elite." The compelling thing about this group regarding Saturday's game, though, isn't their considerable talent; it's their versatility.

Up front, the Blue Hens are led by Artis Hemingway, a sixth-year lineman who earned third-team All-CAA honors a year ago. He's flanked on either side by Anthony Toro and Tommy Walsh, who played in every game last season and combined for 56 tackles and 8.5 TFLs a year ago. In passing situations, they will bring in senior Chase McGowan, who played so well in a situational role that he was named to the All-CAA third team last season. The Delaware secondary is just as deep, with All-American safety Kedrick Whitehead leading the charge.

Delaware's flexibility on defense is the greatest challenge facing Navy on Saturday. Delaware could line up in their base 3-3-5. They could bring in McGowan for the whole game to show an even front. They could show a true 5-DL look by bringing in the 290-pound Jordan Morris and 275-pound Jack Hall at DT alongside Hemingway. They could line up with three linebackers or slide their Bandit position, a hybrid LB/S, down to linebacker permanently. They could get Whitehead involved in run support by lining up in a 4-4 and having him follow the pitch man. All of these are plausible, and because the Mids don't know what they'll be facing, they must prepare for them all. For a typical Navy team, that's par for the course. For a young team that has yet to show the option proficiency of past squads, it will be an immediate test.

This game is probably more important to Navy if we're being honest. Both teams have a lot to prove, but Navy has more to lose; Delaware's season won't get derailed by a loss to an FBS team. Not that Delaware won't play to win, because of course they will. However, the more important thing for the Blue Hens is to keep Nolan Henderson healthy in a game that doesn't affect their season goals. At his best, Henderson's biggest strength is his accuracy; in the 2020 spring season, he completed 71 percent of his throws. Delaware can take advantage of that by crafting a game plan around short throws and passes out of the backfield, with the bonus of quickly getting the ball out of Henderson's hands. Usually, it's Navy that wants to limit possessions. Still, if Delaware can do so, it will give the Navy offense fewer opportunities to figure out whatever look they're getting from the Blue Hen defense.

I don't want to make Delaware out to be the Monsters of the Delmarva, because they're not. If the progress Navy made last season was real, and if they built on that over the spring and fall camp, they should win this game without too much fuss. That's something they need to prove, though. If Navy puts on a repeat performance of last year's opener, Delaware is more than capable of winning. This isn't the Mids' usual Patriot League tune-up. A win over a top-20 FCS program wouldn't mean that all of Navy's troubles are gone, but it would mean something.