Life is hard. Sometimes, there are difficult conversations to be had with your family when there is bad news. I think the best approach in these situations is to sit everyone down and cut to the chase. Drawing things out just makes it worse.
This is one of those times. It's time to talk to your children about the possibility of an undefeated Air Force.
Can they do it? I think so. They're that good, and their schedule is that bad.
Air Force is having the season they were supposed to have last year. The Falcons won ten games in 2021. The key players were back in 2022, including both their record-setting leading rusher and three-year starter at quarterback. Expectations were high at the beginning of the season as the Falcons were expected to be favored in every game. Talk of Air Force being the Group of Five representatives in a New Year's Six bowl game was not uncommon. Air Force suffered an early-season loss to Wyoming, effectively killing those ambitions. They still ended up having an excellent season, though.
Now Air Force is once again back in the spotlight as a candidate for a New Year's Six bowl berth. They come into Saturday's game ranked #22 in both polls, the highest-ranked team outside of the Power Five and the earliest they've been ranked since 2010. Last week, they beat Wyoming, the team that set them back last year and likely the best team on their schedule. All of this from a team that had more questions at the beginning of the season than last year, at least on offense. Brad Roberts, who re-wrote the Air Force record books, is gone. So is the three-year starter at quarterback, Haaziq Daniels, and he didn't have a clear replacement waiting behind him.
But while Air Force had questions in their backfield, the rest of the team was pretty settled. The offensive line, despite losing two all-conference performers, has three other players who are multi-year starters. Last year's defense was statistically the #1 unit in the country and has several key components still in place.
Continuity helps, and one thing that has helped with Air Force's continuity has been their turnbacks. Troy Calhoun has long advocated for redshirts, and now he has them, even if nobody wants to call them that. Air Force has 11 fifth-year seniors, and they are the anchors of this team. Fifth-year senior fullback Emmanuel Michel is the team's leading rusher. Starting quarterback Zac Larrier is also a fifth-year senior. They run behind fifth-year offensive tackle Kaleb Holcomb. Fifth-year safety Trey Taylor has two interceptions and is the team's second-leading tackler. Bo Richter, a fifth-year linebacker, leads the team in tackles for loss and is second in sacks. These turnbacks were supposedly COVID-related, so unless there were players who wanted to prolong their freshman years, this should be the last crop of de-facto redshirts. However, Calhoun has stated that he wants to make it a permanent feature. Keeping players around for an extra season would certainly help offset any effects from the next two years of NCAA probation. I suppose we'll find out next year if this is the new normal.
One can debate whether or not this policy is appropriate or whether it is being abused for competitive purposes. What cannot be argued is its impact on Air Force and this game. All those would-be question marks are instead positions of strength and experience for the Falcons this season. And to their credit, they've taken full advantage. Air Force is the top rushing offense in the nation, averaging almost 100 yards per game more than Navy. They don't throw much, but when they do, it packs a punch; the Falcons are also #1 in both passing efficiency and yards per completion. They are also good at keeping drives alive, ranking first in both third-down conversions and time of possession. Meanwhile, their defense is behind only Penn State and Michigan in total yardage per game. Their run defense is giving up only 77 yards per game.
On paper, Air Force is unquestionably the better team. However, that was the case last year, too, and the Mids still had every opportunity to win in a 13-10 contest that went down to the wire. Both defenses have a keen sense of self-awareness regarding the option. They know what look they're presenting to the other team. They know the offense's rules against that look, so they can anticipate what's coming. The trick for both teams is to do something unexpected to create a big play. In this game, one or two big plays can be all it takes to win. Last year, Air Force connected on their one open pass play. Navy did not. That was the difference in the game. And if you're talking about creating big plays, Navy and Air Force aren't as different as you think.
Let's talk a little about the Navy offense. We're halfway through the season now, so I think we have enough of a sample size to form some opinions. The Mids have been erratic this season. They are tied for second-most scoring drives of 1:00 or less, but they also have a habit of going three-and-out and are 114th in third-down conversion percentage. They can generate big plays, but they have little consistency. This tells me three things:
1. They have the talent to make big plays. Paul Johnson used to talk about having players who could turn a 30-yard play into a 10-yard play. That clearly is not the issue.
2. The new offense has potential.
3. Execution has been awful. When executed correctly, Navy can be explosive. But all too often, they are not executing correctly, which is why they have trouble sustaining drives.
The question, then, is why Navy isn't executing. I have a theory.
In some high-level ways, Navy's new offense is similar to Air Force's. Both teams run a base set of plays, but they do it out of multiple formations and using varying motions to get a numbers advantage and blocking leverage on the perimeter. Air Force has been doing this for years, and they're getting better at it. Indeed, outside of the small-sample 2020 season, Air Force has thrown fewer passes every year since 2018. They don't need to. It has made the adjustment to the cut blocking rule change a lot easier since they were less reliant on cut blocking in the first place. For Navy, though, this is new territory. All the new formations and motions are a lot to learn, and I wonder if that hasn't led to assignment mixups and bad form when blocking outside. This may get better with time and experience, or it may be something the coaches have to scale back on.
You can see how this plays out statistically. Air Force has 50 runs of 10+ yards this season. Navy has only 38. But both teams have the same number of runs of 20+ yards (15). Air Force executes better and gets more of the runs that keep the chains moving, but both teams are getting explosive plays. Overall, Navy has actually done slightly better in plays of 20+ yards from scrimmage (24 vs. 23). In a game where consistency is difficult both ways and making big plays is a critical factor in the outcome, the matchup is more even than it looks.
To be fair, Navy has given up more 20+ yard runs on defense, although only three more, and even that is a little deceiving. Air Force has faced the third-fewest running attempts per game in the country, likely due to their TOP advantage (they don't see many pass attempts either). This is also where strength of schedule can skew things. Navy's early-season tackling issues are a legitimate concern, but it isn't the problem it once was. Again, this matchup is more even than it appears on the surface.
Still, while big plays are usually the most critical factor in the game, you can't just write off Air Force's superior execution. Indeed, at the end of last year's game, Air Force asserted their will to drive for the go-ahead field goal. Navy got called for delay of game and couldn't complete a pass. Execution still matters. But it'll matter less if Navy can connect on more explosive plays.
There are a few other factors worth considering:
Quarterbacks: Both teams are unsettled at the quarterback position. Against Wyoming last week, Larrier left the game with what appeared to be some kind of leg or foot injury. In real-time, it didn't look that bad; the injury wasn't apparent on replay, and he got up and walked around well enough afterward. Unfortunately, it's worse than it appeared. Calhoun confirmed that Larrier suffered a knee injury and will be out "for a while." Senior Jensen Jones will take his place.
Jones hasn't had much playing time, but I don't think there will be much dropoff for the Falcons over the long run. Jones is a senior, and there was speculation that he would win the starting job at the beginning of the season. I would wager that he'll run the offense just fine. However, in the context of this game, losing Larrier could be huge. In a game where big plays make all the difference, having the Mountain West 200-meter dash champion in your backfield is like an ace up your sleeve. Not that Jones isn't an athlete in his own right, but elite speed is elite speed.
For the Mids, Brian Newberry didn't want to comment on his quarterback situation when he spoke to the media on Monday. A lingering rib injury forced Tai Lavatai out of the Charlotte game, and Braxton Woodson went the rest of the way. Even if Lavatai is healthy, it still leaves the Navy staff with an interesting dilemma. Lavatai would be the steadier choice, but Woodson has more big-play potential in a game where big plays are everything. However, he's also a freshman, and while he handled himself well against the 49ers, service academy games are a whole different animal. Lavatai, on the other hand, has seen it all. He doesn't get rattled. Is the big play potential of Woodson worth the turnover risk? It's a tricky question.
Special teams: Field position can be an enormous factor in a game where points are usually at a premium, and Navy has an advantage here. Riley Riethman is among the top punters in the country, averaging more than 45 yards per punt. Last week, he had four punts of 50+ yards and four punts placed inside the 20. In a game like this, he is a weapon. Air Force hasn't punted much this year, so they're sort of an unknown in this department. But it's good to have a proven commodity.
Along those lines, Amin Hassan is having a sneaky good season as a punt returner. At 11 yards per return, he's 23rd in the country in return average. In contrast, Air Force is 129th in the country in punt return average. That's mainly because they don't really try; when your offense is as effective as the Falcons', it's OK to worry about catching the ball and nothing else. In this game, though, a 10-yard return is one more first down the offense doesn't have to get. Cheap points are still points; if you can get them from a short drive, all the better.
On the flip side, Navy's kicking situation is somewhat unsettled, while Air Force kicker Matthew Dapore has yet to miss a kick this season. And while Air Force isn't the kick-blocking team they used to be, they did block a crucial extra point last week. Navy, on the other hand, has had some misadventures at times in the kicking game. Field position only gets you part of the way there.
Preparation: While Navy might be running an option offense, it's still a new offense. Most teams start preparing for Navy in the spring and fall camp, devoting at least a period or two to option prep daily. Presumably, Air Force did the same thing. However, nobody knew what Navy would look like until they lined up against Notre Dame. When Air Force practiced for Navy, it was almost certainly against a different look. That can make them more susceptible to eye candy. Maybe not much more, but we're talking about a game usually played on the margins anyway. One split second of reaction time can make all the difference in the world.
Also, I still believe that Navy's coaches have been holding back in anticipation of this game. Air Force is one of the most aggressive defenses against the option that Navy sees every year. The Mids always run a reverse or two in this game, but that's a play we have yet to see them run this year. We've barely seen any misdirection at all out of the Navy offense, and I think that is intentional.
If you're reading this and want to accuse me of wishful thinking and tortured logic, that's fair. Let's face it: Air Force is a heavy favorite for a reason. They've earned it. However, I do think this is a closer matchup than it appears on paper. Navy has shown big-play ability, which they've lacked in recent years. I think that gives them a better shot than most people believe in this game.
Let's hope so, because an undefeated Air Force is a burden this country shouldn't have to bear.
