Rivals.com AAC Roundtable: Dark horse of the conference?

Representatives from the Rivals.com sites covering the American Athletic Conference kicked off a week-long roundtable discussion on Sunday that focuses on a variety of topics surrounding college football in the conference. Publishers, editors and beat writers from the AAC schools will chime in on a question of the day all the way up to July 26.

Here are the following individuals who have agreed to participate for Monday's question (all names are in alphabetical order):

Kyle Gauss, assistant editor, OwlScoop.com (Temple)

Brandon Helwig, publisher, UCFSports.com (UCF)

Mike James, publisher, TheMidReport.com (Navy)

Mark Lindsay, publisher, PirateIllustrated.com (East Carolina)

Ben McCool, beat writer, BullsInsider.com (USF)

Jefferson Powell, publisher, Cougars Den (Houston)

Damon Sayles, managing editor, The HillTopics (SMU)

Isaac Simpson, beat writer, TigerSportReport.com (Memphis)

Guerry Smith, publisher, The Wave Report (Tulane)

Jason Stamm, managing editor, BearcatReport.com (Cincinnati)

QUESTION OF THE DAY: JULY 20

Which team is the dark horse of the conference? And why?

GAUSS: I might get accused of bias, as it's the team that I cover, but for me it's Temple. I think there's a clear upper tier of the American this season with UCF, Cincinnati and Memphis, but after that, it's an open field. Most prognosticators seem to view this season as a rebuild for Rod Carey's team, and while the Owls are replacing a lot of key players, they also return a lot of proven commodities.

Overall, I think Temple has a chance to overachieve and surpass the .500 record that appears to be the en vogue prediction for the Owls. Traveling to Memphis and UCF will obviously be tough, but Cincinnati and SMU come to Philadelphia this season. It wouldn't surprise me to see Temple's defense get better as the season progresses and for the Owls to finish 5-3 or 6-2 in conference.

HELWIG: To me, a dark horse is any team not named UCF, Memphis or Cincinnati. So to that end, I'm going with SMU. You could make the argument they should be lumped in with the first group, but it seems people have been sleeping on the Mustangs despite the 10-win season in 2019. There are several outstanding quarterbacks in the league, and fifth-year senior Shane Buechele certainly could be considered the best. Schedule wise, all the top-tier opponents are coming to Dallas: Memphis, Cincinnati, Navy and Houston. They also avoid UCF.

JAMES: While everyone expects Cincinnati and UCF to be the primary competition for Memphis, I think that the dark horse for the league crown is Navy. People might look at the Mids' 11-win 2019 campaign as the Malcolm Perry show, and while the record-setting quarterback was a huge factor, he wasn't the only story. Navy's defense came out of nowhere to lead the conference in total yards and finish second in scoring. Navy only gave up 105.8 yards per game on the ground, which is an incredible number when you consider that they played run-heavy teams like Army, Air Force, and Kansas State.

Several players from that defense return, including all-conference performer Diego Fagot at inside linebacker. Now that they have a year of experience in Brian Newberry's system under their belts, Navy's defense could be even better.

Replacing Perry will be difficult, but the offense has other key pieces returning, including fullbacks Jamale Carothers and Nelson Smith, 6-5 receiver Mychal Cooper, and several slotbacks. In a strange twist, the coronavirus pandemic may help Navy's offense some as well. Teams start working on their option defense in the spring, but with most spring practices being canceled, they may not be as prepared as they usually are when they face Navy. It's a crowded field at the top of the American, especially with teams like SMU and Tulane also on the rise. Navy, however, shouldn't be counted out.

LINDSAY: SMU. They had a solid 10-3 season last year with just a pair of conferences losses. They went 5-1 on the road, which is worthy of note.

McCOOL: My dark horse: The Tigers of Memphis. I gave some thought to picking them as the favorite to win the conference but have some concerns about what they lose on defense. I like how they finished last season strong, beating Cincinnati twice in a row to win the conference championship. They’ll also have the advantage against the Bearcats by hosting them this season.

They will play UCF on the road, which contributed to them getting my dark horse pick instead of favorite to win the championship. I do like what they bring back on offense, though, and I expect them to be a factor in the way the conference championship plays out.

POWELL: I think the top two teams to beat are UCF and Memphis, but if I'm picking a dark horse, I'm going with Cincinnati. I really love what Luke Fickell is doing in Cincinnati, and he's really turning that program around.

The Bearcats have achieved back-to-back 11-win seasons and just have a knack for being in position to win. Desmond Ridder returns at quarterback but they will be forced to replace one of the top backs in the AAC with the departure of Michael Warren II and also have questions with wide receiver depth.

What the Bearcats do have is a defensive unit that could end up being the league's best by the time its all said and done. Led by defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman. This defense has the talent to slow down some of the AAC's high powered offenses enough to keep Cincinnati in some of the games in which they'll likely be underdogs.

Yes they have holes and questions that need answers on both sides of the ball. Luke Fickell has recruited well and his Bearcat teams always seem to put forth gritty efforts and when you add talent to that, things eventually come together. This year could be when it all comes together for Fickell and and the Bearcats.

SAYLES: I'm going with the SMU Mustangs here. SMU won 10 games last season, and it's very clear to see that the entire team doesn't feel like it gets the respect it deserves. Offensively, Shane Buechele returns at quarterback, and he has a stable of talented wide receivers, including a healthy Reggie Roberson Jr., who is one of the most dangerous players in the AAC.

Defense will be what determines SMU's greatness this year. The team lost several key linemen but scored a huge graduate transfer in former Stanford starter Mike Williams. If the defense can hold its own, SMU in 2020 can be just as good as -- if not better than -- it was in 2019.

SIMPSON: I'm going to go with Navy. A lot of preseason prognosticators have them picked in the mid to bottom tier of the conference. It won't be easy to replace last year's AAC Offensive Player of the Year in Malcolm Perry. Sophomore quarterback Perry Olsen is expected to step in, and they return last year's rushing and receiving leaders in running back Jamale Carothers and wide receiver Mychal Cooper, as well as slot back CJ Williams. They are also extremely experienced on the defensive side of the football.

The unorthodox triple option is always going to cause problems for teams because it's much different than what you face on a week-to-week basis. One thing we know about head coach Ken Niumatalolo is that he'll have these guys ready to play. I think they have a good opportunity to outperform where they’re currently being projected.

SMITH: Tulane. Despite winning a bowl game for the second year in a row, 2019 was a disappointment for the Green Wave, which followed a tie for first place in the West division in 2018 by slipping to 3-5 in league play. The schedule was tough, including a thrilling September victory against full-strength Houston in D'Eriq King's last game with the Cougars, but Tulane lost five of its last six conference matchups -- all to teams that finished 5-3 or better.

Willie Fritz has done an outstanding job turning around what had been a perennial loser, and his fifth edition is loaded at running back -- remember the name Tyjae Spears -- and on the defensive line, where all four starters and most of the top backups return. If unproven senior quarterback Keon Howard plays well -- a big if -- this team can contend for the title.

STAMM: I'm not sure I'd call SMU a surprise after last season, but it doesn't seem like the Mustangs have a ton of chatter right now. This is a team that absolutely can contend for the conference title. And if a few things go right, SMU could be right in the thick of it. The main reason is Shane Buechele at quarterback. Hell of a 2019 season, and I think he follows that up with similar numbers.

DID YOU MISS PART OF THE ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSION?

Sunday, July 19