The last hanging chad of the most recent round of conference realignment is nearing resolution… maybe.
The Pac-12 needs one more all-sports member to be added before July 1, 2026, to maintain its status as an NCAA-recognized conference. Right now, the most likely candidate is reportedly Texas State. To meet that deadline, the school would have to notify the Sun Belt Conference of its intent to leave before July 1 of this year; otherwise, its exit fee doubles from $5 million to $10 million. As is usually the case with realignment stories, we’re getting more rumor than actual reporting; even now, there is talk that some Pac-12 members are pushing back on adding Texas State. Either way, we could hear something in the next two weeks.
Whatever the decision, a chain reaction is likely to follow. If Texas State leaves, the Sun Belt will want a replacement. If it isn’t Texas State, the Pac-12 will still need a member in a hurry. They may want a second new member even if Texas State comes on board. And as always, whenever conference realignment is on the table, the American Athletic Conference is front and center.
(One of the enduring mysteries of college sports is how so many fans and media members are dismissive of the AAC's standing, yet AAC members are always at the top of the list whenever another league wants to add to its ranks. Go figure.)
Two AAC schools have been the subject of realignment speculation over the last week. The first rumor is that the Sun Belt contacted ECU to see if they’d be interested in joining. I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened. But this is about as much of a news item as me announcing on Twitter that I applied to be the next Navy AD. It is not something to take seriously.
The most charitable reading of the “story” is that the Sun Belt just wanted to take a moon shot and didn’t expect anything to come of it. A more conspiratorial reading is that this is astroturfing by the Sun Belt, leaking this out to manufacture the perception that their relative standing among conferences is higher than it actually is. (The Mountain West does this all the time. Remember when they tried to push the idea that Big 12 schools were interested in them after Oklahoma and Texas left for the SEC? Or when there were rumors that they would take SMU, North Texas, or Tulsa from the American?) The most likely explanation is that one person on Twitter just wanted clicks. Whatever the explanation, there’s no reason for anyone to give this rumor another thought.
Despite having already turned down the Pac-12 once before, Memphis is also a target of persistent realignment rumors. Memphis AD Ed Scott has already stated that there is nothing new to discuss, but that hasn’t stopped the chatter. Memphis fans, having watched traditional rivals like Louisville, Cincinnati, and Houston move on to bigger paydays, are eager to find greener grass, even if it’s illusory. The Pac-12 would love the visual of poaching an AAC school as a talking point to convince the world that it is an obvious “best of the rest” outside of the four power conferences. But reality is working against them both.
The Pac-12 is reportedly close to securing a media rights deal, but the problem is that it has been “close” for months. When they initially approached Memphis and Tulane about possible membership, they were selling the potential of a $12-15 million per school media deal. That didn’t happen. The conference expected to have a deal in place at the end of March. That didn’t happen. We were told that a deal would be done by the end of April and “certainly by the middle of May.” That also didn’t happen. Do we believe the check is in the mail this time? Maybe it is, but the conference has long ago lost the benefit of the doubt. Any assurances that we have of an imminent deal should be met with skepticism.
The same skepticism should be applied when it comes to the contract’s value. One possible explanation for the date constantly slipping is that the Pac-12 isn’t getting the payout it had been selling to potential new members. Recent estimates for the new contract’s annual payout are now around $70-100 million. That is an enormous range, which alone is reason enough to question the accuracy of the reports we’re seeing. In a 9-team conference (Gonzaga will receive a full share), that would work out to $7.8-11 million per school. If this is accurate— and again, that is a big if— is that really enough to entice Memphis (or anyone else) to leave the AAC?
Just do the math. The American’s exit fees are $10 million with 27 months' advance notice. Inside that window, the fee goes up to a higher negotiated rate. Cincinnati, UCF, and Houston paid $18 million apiece. SMU paid $25 million when they left for the ACC.
Memphis received $11 million from the American last year. Joining the Pac-12 would cost them $10–25 million just to enter a league that, at best, only matches that payout. I am extremely skeptical of the proposition that Memphis would pay $20 million (or more) just for a better basketball schedule, because that’s the only real benefit they’d get from the deal. And even that is no long-term guarantee.
Some have floated the idea of Memphis joining the Pac-12 for football only, with other sports heading to the Big East. That’s speculative at best. There’s no sign that either league is interested, and I would be especially doubtful of the latter. Even if it happened, it wouldn’t bring Memphis any closer to joining a power conference, which is their actual goal. If anything, the Pac-12’s grant of rights could make it harder to leave should a real opportunity come along in the next five years. And then they'd have to pay two exit fees.
None of this is to say that the American doesn’t have its own challenges. They’ve lost a lot of brand power in the last few years, and while their replacements have potential, some of that potential needs to be realized before the current media deal expires after the 2031-2032 academic year. Of course, that’s assuming that college sports will even look the same by then. I don’t think anyone believes it will. But that’s all the more reason to stay put rather than spend $20 million just to join a dead brand name that brings you no closer to safety.
So for now, take every rumor and thinly-sourced story with a grain of salt. The Pac-12 has been long on promises and short on delivery, which makes it hard to take that conference seriously. There’s no reason for American schools to do so.
