2022 Navy Football Season Preview

Is momentum a real thing in sports?

It's one of the most familiar stories in football. We talk about momentum in games, in seasons, and in careers. The idea that good things can beget other good things, that the boulder rolls downhill once you get a taste of success, has a certain Newtonian logic to it. Football, however, is not Principia, and not everyone is convinced that this logic applies to the gridiron. Momentum feels real. But is it all in our heads?

Actually, yes, but that's precisely what makes it real. I understand the skepticism around the concept of momentum, but I don't share it. I believe it exists, just not in the way it's usually talked about. Momentum isn't some mystical force; it's a product of human nature. When you experience success, you feel more confident in what you're doing. The more confident you are, the less likely you are to hesitate; you play faster. Having confidence also makes you more likely to take calculated risks, leading to big plays on the field. The opposite is also true; when bad things happen, you lose confidence and start to hesitate. There are limits to this; emotional swings and fluctuating confidence are more likely to be a factor with 18-20-year-old college students than with professional, well-trained adults, for example. Generally speaking, though, when one team gains confidence while the other loses it, the result is what we call "momentum."

It took a long time, but there were signs that the Navy football team finally gained some confidence of their own last season. In the second half of 2021, the Mids took a playoff team to the wire, had a valiant defensive effort against Notre Dame, had arguably their best offensive showing in two years against ECU, and won three out of their last five games. Beating Army was particularly significant; because the two programs are so similar, confidence and momentum are often what sets them apart when they play.

Head coach Ken Niumatalolo alluded to this when looking back on the game.

"When they couldn't knock us off the ball early on, I knew we'd be ok," he said. "We just had to settle down."

Niumatalolo pointed out two specific plays that showcased his team's growth. The first play was Navy's opening touchdown when quarterback Tai Lavatai was met by both Army safeties at the three-yard line but still muscled his way into the end zone on third down. The second play was the Mids' second touchdown, a quarterback sneak where Lavatai could follow the push of his offensive line from two yards out. Niumatalolo contrasted these plays with the previous Army-Navy game, where Navy couldn't put the ball into the end zone from inside the one.

Niumatalolo believes that his team putting forth their best effort on the season's most prominent stage is a good sign for this season.

"That, I really believe, has catapulted our young guys," he said. "Because sometimes they ask, 'why are we doing this? Why are we running that way? How come we're running so much?' That game showed to them, this is why. This is why you do all those things in the 11 months leading up to that. For that moment. I think our young guys now understand."

Seeing their effort pay off with a big win can give players the confidence that creates momentum going into the next season.

But we've seen this story before, haven't we? Sometimes it works out, and sometimes it doesn't. Many Navy fans believe that the Mids' 58-12 blowout win over Army in the 2002 finale did exactly what Niumatalolo described, acting as a springboard into a far more successful 2003 campaign. The same could not be said for Navy's 49-7 thrashing of Virginia in the 2017 Military Bowl. Rather than catalyzing a fantastic 2018, the Mids finished a dismal 3-10 that year. Why should anyone think the 2022 Navy team will be more like the former example?

It's worth considering that as awful as things were last year, Navy may not have been as far from a good season as it seemed. The offense struggled mightily all year, but they still had two-score leads on Houston and SMU, two of the better teams in the American Athletic Conference. It was a 7-3 game against a 10-win Air Force team until the end of the third quarter, and the Mids beat UCF. That's all before considering the team's strides in the second half of the season. Navy didn't have to be world-beaters; if they could have just managed to play at the level of an average Navy offense-- to hold onto those early leads and keep the other offense off the field-- the record might have looked a lot different.

Wishful thinking? Perhaps. Admittedly, it's a lot of would've, could've, and if. There is no guarantee that the Mids will leap forward this season, especially considering that the team is still young; coming out of spring practice, there were only five seniors at the top of the depth chart at their respective positions. However, unlike last year, the team is young but experienced. Injuries forced the Mids to play a lot of freshmen and sophomores before they were ready, and it showed. Now those same players have a year under their belts. Niumatalolo feels the benefit of that experience-- from the could've, should've of the first half to a win in the biggest game of all-- is that his younger players now understand the difference between them.

"That's the thing that I've been talking a lot about in the off-season," he said. "Which one do you want? This isn't horseshoes, you know what I mean? Everybody recognizes the magnitude of a missed assignment, or your eyes in the wrong place, or going to the wrong gap, or blocking a wrong person. Guys recognize that all of those things add up. In and of itself it might seem minuscule, but guys recognize that it could be the difference in the game."

It's not just that hard lessons were learned last year; it's that enough of the players who learned those lessons have returned, giving them a chance to apply what they've learned and to set a team culture around it.

"Our margin of error is very thin," said Niumatalolo. "In a lot of games, we don't have any. That's what we've been trying to build on."

We've seen hard lessons lead to success before. Navy's defense was decimated by injuries in 2007, forcing several freshmen and sophomores to be pressed into service. That trial by fire paid off in the end; the 2009 defense, when those same players were juniors and seniors, was one of the best of Navy's option era. Improvement isn't guaranteed— not by a longshot— but at least there is precedent.

If the Navy offense is going to make similar progress, quarterback Tai Lavatai will have to lead the charge. His sophomore season had a rough start after he suffered an injury in the opener against Marshall and had to sit out the next two games. Those injuries lingered throughout the year, complicating an already tricky situation. Very few sophomores have seen enough reps to become a proficient option quarterback, and it doesn't get any easier when he isn't 100 percent physically. There were times when Niumatalolo had to remind himself of this.

"We're looking at the Marshall game and asking, 'why do we do this?' And then we're looking at all these guys that never played before. I'm getting mad watching some of the things that Tai did, like, 'wait, this is Tai's first start. He's a sophomore.'"

And not a typical sophomore either, considering how the pandemic wiped away the practice reps he would have received his freshman year. Ultimately, Niumatalolo had to adjust the offense to fit Lavatai's abilities, which meant taking a lot of the true triple option plays out of the playbook. Considering that everything in the Navy offense revolves around the triple, that was a bit like taking the ice cream out of a banana split. The offense just couldn't put together more than a drive or two per game.

By the time the Mids faced Army, though, that was no longer the case. The second half of the season saw the Navy offense using more and more triple option with each passing week. It didn't always look good, but it was there. By the ECU game, Navy's offense actually looked like, well, Navy.

One play stood out as particularly illustrative of Lavatai's development as an option quarterback. During the 2020 season, when Niumatalolo discussed how the lack of regular practices affected his quarterbacks, he used the blood stunt as an example. A blood stunt is when both the dive key and the pitch key charge the mesh at the snap; the former takes the fullback, while the latter takes the quarterback. On paper, it's a basic read: the quarterback should pitch. In practice, it's not that easy. Once the quarterback makes his first read, he only has a split second to react to the linebacker already in his face. If the quarterback doesn't have the reaction time of a drag racer, he'll end up on his back or coughing up the ball.

It's a test of confidence in a young quarterback's training; no amount of mental reps can prepare him for the speed of the play. ECU put Lavatai to that test. He checked to the right play, made the read, and the result was Navy's longest play from scrimmage all year:

"I thought the growth from the Notre Dame game to the Army game was as big a jump as I've ever seen from a quarterback," said Niumatalolo.

Even at its best, Navy's offense never played well enough to meet the standard set over the program's last two decades. They did, however, show glimpses. The Mids are counting on Lavatai's progression through spring and fall camp to help the Navy offense find its traditional consistency.

If they do, the biggest beneficiary might be the Navy defense. For all the injuries that the Mids suffered in 2021, they still played well enough to give the team a chance to win in most games. More often than not, though, they just spent too much time on the field. With a year of seasoning and an offense that can hold onto the ball a bit longer, the Navy defense has a chance to be as good as any the Mids have fielded.

"Unfortunately, we had a lot of injuries this past fall, but that allowed us to play a lot of guys that, at the time, maybe weren't quite ready to play," said defensive coordinator Brian Newberry. "They were able to play meaningful snaps and grow and get better and learn during the season. What was unfortunate during the season is something that's going to pay off for us. I'm super encouraged so far about what I see."

The biggest question facing the Mids is whether the broad experience will be enough to overcome the loss of the team’s two biggest stars: linebacker Diego Fagot and cornerback Michael McMorris.

Fagot has been the anchor of the Navy defense for three years, leading the team in tackles and making plays on both sides of the line of scrimmage. He was as comfortable dropping back into coverage as he was shooting gaps to make tackles in the backfield. Replacing that kind of playmaking ability will be no small task.

Taking over Fagot’s MIKE linebacker position will be Will Harbour, a 6’1” 230-pound junior. Harbour earned the Admiral Mack Award in 2021 as the team’s most improved player in spring practice. He claimed the starting job at WILL linebacker and had a season-high nine tackles against Air Force. An injury ended his season early, but he is healthy again and ready to move to the MIKE spot.

“We recruited him to be a MIKE, and that’s really what he is,” said Newberry. “That’s more what he’s suited to play in our system, and he feels comfortable there.”

McMorris is just as big of a loss, especially with the American Athletic Conference having produced some of the country's top wide receivers in recent years. Newberry likes what he sees in cornerbacks Mbiti Williams and Elias Larry, but now they must translate their physical ability into plays on the field.

"We've got a lot of talent at corner, but a lot of young guys," said Newberry. "We need as many reps as we can possibly get between now and the time we play Delaware."

Navy will need to find a way to make up for the loss of Fagot and McMorris, although that production doesn't need to come from their direct replacements. This is Newberry's fourth season in Annapolis. When he arrived, he had to fit players recruited to play different roles into his defense; players were sometimes put into situations they weren't originally intended to handle. That isn't the case anymore; these are players recruited with Newberry's defense in mind. As the players start to fit Newberry's ideal, more players will find themselves in a position to make a big play.

"These last two recruiting classes are a little more tailored to what we're trying to do, look the way that we want them to look," he said. "We're starting to look a little more athletic, a little bit longer at certain positions, which we needed. I'm pleased with the way the group looks right now."

Defensive linemen Clay Cromwell, Donald Berniard, and Jacob Busic have all been praised by the coaches for their ability to get into the backfield. Nicholas Straw and John Marshall are already proven players at the outside linebacker positions. Rayuan Lane III is a safety who made plays all over the field as a freshman and can only get better. If Navy is going to make positive strides in 2022, that potential will need to be realized.

Here are a few other things to watch as the season kicks off:

Fullbacks

Navy's offense has been awful the last two seasons, but one bright spot has been the play of the fullbacks. Nelson Smith was the team's leading rusher in 2020, while James Harris and Isaac Ruoss were a steady presence up the middle last year. If the Mids are going to return to form, it's hard to imagine how it will happen without reliable, consistent production from the first of the three options. However, while Navy was able to rely on seniors to get the job done the last two years, the job will fall to a group of promising but unproven sophomores in 2022.

Anton Hall, Logan Point, and Daba Fofana are at the top of the depth chart, and each has his own style. Hall has earned the coaches' praise for his ability to run between the tackles and change directions quickly. Point is the fastest of the group, with straight-line speed that we haven't seen from the B-back position in the last two years. Fofana has risen quickly up the depth chart with his eagerness to learn the offense.

And that is ultimately what will determine who gets on the field. Before any of the fullbacks can use that talent, they have to grasp the offense. The fullbacks have to make a very quick read at the line of scrimmage. They look at the first down lineman over or inside the B gap. If the lineman goes left, the fullback runs right, and vice versa. It's a simple concept, but it happens so quickly that it has to become almost instinctual. Navy can win with any of these skillsets, but the player who masters that first read will get the most playing time.

The Schedule

Navy played a playoff-caliber schedule last season, with three opponents finishing in the AP Top 25, including two in the top ten. Except for Delaware replacing Marshall, the slate of opponents is unchanged for 2022. That means the Mids will face another talented Cincinnati squad, a Houston team favored to win the conference after a 12-2 record last year, and preseason top-five Notre Dame. SMU will almost certainly make top-25 noise again this year, and Air Force is expected to be favored in every game. By one metric, Navy has the most demanding schedule in the country. Opponent wins and losses might not be the best way to determine true schedule strength, but being ranked #1 certainly doesn’t make the Navy schedule easy. The Mids could make tremendous strides this year, and the record still might not reflect that progress.

Wrinkles?

There was a tweet from one of the coaches that caught my eye a few weeks ago:

Position coaches having their players over for dinner before camp starts is a pretty standard practice. What’s unusual is that Chuck Petersen was never announced as taking over a specific position and is still listed on the roster as an “Offensive Assistant.” Looking at the players in the picture, it’s an odd mashup of different positions. Or at least, I thought it was. John Amell, Jackson Boyer, Akalea Kapono, DJ Donovan, and Anthony D’Angelo are all former defenders who are now listed as wide receivers, and they happen to be under the tutelage of the one coach who used to be the offensive coordinator at Air Force.

Could it be that Navy will use tight ends for the first time in 20 years?

It would be ironic if that were the case. When Charlie Weatherbie fired Niumatalolo as his offensive coordinator in 1998, one of the reasons was that Niumatalolo objected to Weatherbie’s desire to bring in more of the concepts he used at Air Force, including the use of a tight end. However, when you have someone with Petersen’s experience and wealth of knowledge on the staff, it would be foolish not to incorporate some of his ideas into the offense.

This is purely speculative, of course. But what would it mean if a tight end did become part of the Navy offense? From an Xs and Os perspective, it might not be too radical of a change. When Navy lines up in flex formations, one (or both) of the wide receivers already becomes a de facto tight end. That was always one of the advantages of the Navy offense: to line up in anything from a two-TE set to a four-receiver set using the same personnel. Perhaps this is just a way of tailoring different personnel groups to certain situations. Maybe it could lead to more, or maybe it’s all in my mind. But if it happens, don’t be surprised.